ABSTRACT The study analyses ethnic voter-candidate linkages and the electoral consequences of such linkages in an ethnically divided Montenegrin society. I argue that vote choice in Montenegro is a function of the dominance of the identity cleavage between the two largest, dominant ethnicities: Montenegrins and Serbs. I conducted a two-stage experiment on a sample of 240 students where, in the first stage, the respondents were given cues as to a candidate’s ethnicity. The results suggest both a co-identity linkage and a positive effect of ethnic information shortcuts on voters’ choices among Montenegrin respondents. For Serbs, ethnic cues failed as a substantive information shortcut in producing electoral advantage. However, additional analysis of the observational data from CSES 2016 provided more evidence to support the identity linkage hypothesis. In an additional experimental stage, respondents were introduced to vote-buying information about the same candidate, under the assumption that the defection rate would be lower for the co-identity candidate. Here, the defection rates remain stable regardless of the co-identity attachment. The overall results suggest that with additional ethnic political parties present, defection as a consequence of illicit behaviour will not translate into a significant transfer of power between ethnic groups.

中文翻译：

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投票，客户至上和身份：黑山的实验证据

摘要这项研究分析了在黑山种族分化的社会中选民与候选人的联系以及这种联系的选举后果。我认为，黑山的投票选择取决于两个最大的占主导地位的族裔：黑山和塞族人之间身份分裂的支配地位。我对240名学生的样本进行了两个阶段的实验，在第一阶段中，受访者获得了关于候选人种族的线索。结果表明，黑山受访者之间的共同身份联系和种族信息捷径对选民选择的积极影响。对于塞族人而言，种族线索未能成为产生选举优势的实质性信息捷径。然而，来自CSES 2016的观测数据的进一步分析提供了更多证据来支持同一性连锁假设。在另一个实验阶段，假设共同身份候选人的叛逃率会更低，这将假设让受访者投票购买有关同一候选人的信息。在这里，无论共同身份的附着情况如何，叛逃率都保持稳定。总体结果表明，在存在其他族裔政党的情况下，由于非法行为造成的叛逃不会转化为族裔群体之间的重大权力转移。无论同伴身份如何，叛逃率都保持稳定。总体结果表明，在存在其他族裔政党的情况下，由于非法行为造成的叛逃不会转化为族裔群体之间的重大权力转移。无论同伴身份如何，叛逃率都保持稳定。总体结果表明，在存在其他族裔政党的情况下，由于非法行为造成的叛逃不会转化为族裔群体之间的重大权力转移。