ABSTRACT

Guided by both recent anecdotal speculation of and realized statistical spikes in homicide and violence in several major U.S. cities, this study presents results of an effort to empirically examine the nature and correlates of recent changes in homicide rates (i.e. 2012–2018) with particular attention to a spike in 2014–2016 in select U.S. cities. Data were derived from multiple sources using a unique mixed-methods approach. To measure the magnitude of changes in homicide rates in recent years, quantitative homicide data were collected from the Uniform Crime Reports, media articles, individual police department queries, Project Safe Neighborhood grantee sites, and the Major Cities Chiefs Association, Violent Crime Survey. Qualitative assessments were then captured from both academic experts as well as practitioners in the field relative to the possible correlates of these observed trends. Quantitative findings substantiate that homicide rates in select U.S. cities were increasing but variation was also found with rates in other cities having remained stable or even declining over the period studied. This work delineates the practical contours of these correlates and finds concordance of practitioner beliefs with research findings while providing a glimpse toward future actions in response to both real and perceived fluctuations.

摘要

在美国几个主要城市凶杀和暴力的近期轶事推测和已实现的统计峰值的指导下，本研究提出了一项努力的结果，即对近期凶杀率（即 2012-2018 年）变化的性质和相关性进行实证研究，并给予特别关注到 2014 年至 2016 年在部分美国城市达到峰值。使用独特的混合方法从多个来源获得数据。为了衡量近年来凶杀率的变化幅度，我们从统一犯罪报告、媒体文章、个别警察部门查询、项目安全社区受赠地点和主要城市酋长协会的暴力犯罪调查中收集了定量凶杀数据。然后从学术专家和该领域的从业者那里获得了关于这些观察到的趋势的可能相关性的定性评估。定量研究结果证实，美国部分城市的凶杀率正在上升，但在研究期间，其他城市的凶杀率也保持稳定甚至下降。这项工作描绘了这些相关性的实际轮廓，并发现了从业者信念与研究结果的一致性，同时提供了对未来响应真实和感知波动的行动的一瞥。城市正在增加，但也发现了变化，其他城市的比率在研究期间保持稳定甚至下降。这项工作描绘了这些相关性的实际轮廓，并发现了从业者信念与研究结果的一致性，同时提供了对未来响应真实和感知波动的行动的一瞥。城市正在增加，但也发现了变化，其他城市的比率在研究期间保持稳定甚至下降。这项工作描绘了这些相关性的实际轮廓，并发现了从业者信念与研究结果的一致性，同时提供了对未来响应真实和感知波动的行动的一瞥。