ABSTRACT

Recent research has consistently found declines in youth offending, and it has been suggested that youth offending may have become more concentrated in lower socio-economic communities. However, there has been limited empirical examination of this proposition. This study aimed to examine changes in the relative concentration of youth offending in low and high socio-economic communities in an Australian jurisdiction, from 2008 to 2018, and to explore socio-economic drivers of different types of youth offending over this period. Changes in offending concentration were measured using ratios of youth offending rates in low and high socio-economic communities over time and Poisson panel regression was used to explore socio-economic drivers of youth offending rates. Findings indicated disparate patterns across youth offending types, with significant decreases in one-off and low to moderate offending, and significant increases in chronic offending over the same period. Overall, youth offending was not found to have become increasingly concentrated in lower socio-economic communities, primarily due to larger relative increases in chronic offending in higher socio-economic communities. Despite a slight decrease in concentration, lower socio-economic communities continue to experience markedly higher youth offending rates. Findings indicate a need to better understand drivers of recent increases in chronic youth offending.

摘要

最近的研究一致发现青少年犯罪有所下降，并且有人认为青少年犯罪可能更加集中在较低的社会经济社区。然而，对这一命题的实证检验是有限的。本研究旨在调查 2008 年至 2018 年澳大利亚辖区低社会经济社区中青年犯罪的相对集中度的变化，并探讨在此期间不同类型青年犯罪的社会经济驱动因素。使用低社会经济社区和高社会经济社区的青年犯罪率随时间的变化来衡量犯罪浓度的变化，并使用泊松面板回归来探索青年犯罪率的社会经济驱动因素。调查结果表明青少年犯罪类型的不同模式，在同一时期，一次性犯罪和中度犯罪显着减少，慢性犯罪显着增加。总体而言，并未发现青少年犯罪越来越集中在社会经济地位较低的社区，这主要是由于社会经济地位较高的社区中长期犯罪的相对增加较多。尽管集中度略有下降，但较低的社会经济社区继续经历明显更高的青年犯罪率。调查结果表明，需要更好地了解近期青少年慢性犯罪增加的驱动因素。主要是由于较高社会经济社区的慢性犯罪相对增加。尽管集中度略有下降，但较低的社会经济社区继续经历明显更高的青年犯罪率。调查结果表明，需要更好地了解近期青少年慢性犯罪增加的驱动因素。主要是由于较高社会经济社区的慢性犯罪相对增加。尽管集中度略有下降，但较低的社会经济社区继续经历明显更高的青年犯罪率。调查结果表明，需要更好地了解近期青少年慢性犯罪增加的驱动因素。