South African Geographical Journal ( IF 1.662 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-22 , DOI: 10.1080/03736245.2020.1835699 Karam A. Elzopy 1, 2 , Ashish K. Chaturvedi 1 , K. Madhava Chandran 1 , Girish Gopinath 3, 4 , Naveena K 1 , U. Surendran 1
ABSTRACT
Trend analysis for the long-term average temperature and rainfall of Ethiopia during 1901 to 2015 has been performed to understand the pattern of these important meteorological features under climate change. The rainfall characterizations viz., precipitation concentration index (PCI), seasonality index (SI), rainfall anomaly index (RAI) and departure analysis of rainfall (DAR) have been calculated and interpreted. The annual rainfall recorded for the whole period was 816.3 ± 90.82 mm/year. During kiremt (long rainy) season, maximum seasonal rainfall of 453.2 mm were recorded while, its minimum value (39.6 mm) were received in bega (dry) season, respectively. The analysis of probability distribution for the time series data showed slightly positive skewness and kurtosis in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall from the normal distribution. The results of Modified Mann–Kendall trend analysis for average temperature revealed a significant increasing trend from 1961 to 2015. Conversely, dry season (bega) rainfall, showed an increasing trend while kiremt season rainfall with decreasing trend for the period of 1901–2015. However, annual and other seasonal rainfall did not show any statistically significant trend. Study concludes that there is an increase in the average temperature in Ethiopia but, it constitutes a high degree of stability in rainfall rate and distribution.
中文翻译:
埃塞俄比亚长期降雨和温度数据趋势分析
摘要
对埃塞俄比亚 1901 年至 2015 年的长期平均气温和降雨量进行趋势分析,以了解气候变化下这些重要气象特征的格局。计算和解释了降雨特征,即降雨集中指数(PCI)、季节性指数(SI)、降雨异常指数(RAI)和降雨偏离分析(DAR)。全年录得的年降雨量为 816.3 ± 90.82 毫米/年。在 kiremt(长雨季)期间,记录的最大季节性降雨量为 453.2 毫米,而其最小值(39.6 毫米)分别出现在贝加(旱季)季节。时间序列数据的概率分布分析表明,正态分布的月、季和年降雨量的偏度和峰度略为正。平均气温修正 Mann-Kendall 趋势分析结果显示 1961 年至 2015 年有显着增加趋势。相反,旱季(bega)降雨量在 1901 年至 2015 年期间呈增加趋势,而基尔姆特季降雨量呈减少趋势。然而,年降雨量和其他季节性降雨量没有显示出任何统计上的显着趋势。研究得出结论,埃塞俄比亚的平均气温有所上升,但降雨率和分布高度稳定。年度和其他季节性降雨量没有显示出任何统计上的显着趋势。研究得出结论,埃塞俄比亚的平均气温有所上升,但降雨率和分布高度稳定。年度和其他季节性降雨量没有显示任何统计上的显着趋势。研究得出结论,埃塞俄比亚的平均气温有所上升,但降雨率和分布高度稳定。