Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings

Climate scientists have developed high-resolution climate models to project local effects of climate change. However, such high-resolution climate information is not widely incorporated into climate change adaptation plans. In this study we analyze high-resolution (1.24 × 1.24-mile grid) temperature data generated by a climate model for Los Angeles County (CA). The data include projected surface air temperature and the number of extreme heat days (daily maximum temperature exceeding 95 °F) between a baseline period (1981–2000) and a mid-21st-century period (2041–2060). The data assume that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions will continuously increase at the current level and no change in existing built environments. We find significant geographic heterogeneity in terms of climate change effects in Los Angeles County. Also, given the assumptions, we expect inland suburban areas where urban expansion has been occurring to have more severe extreme heat effects than central and coastal areas by mid-century.

Takeaway for practice

Planners should engage with climate scientists to access and use high-resolution climate data. The use of high-resolution climate data needs to be mandated in plan-making in the era of climate change. Many regions may have different spatial patterns of extreme heat events and require tailored climate adaptation plans. In Los Angeles County, for example, continuing suburbanization in inland valley areas may need to be discouraged, whereas coastal areas with the least effects may consider denser, inclusive redevelopment strategies.

中文翻译：

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规划气候变化

摘要

问题，研究策略和发现

气候科学家开发了高分辨率的气候模型来预测气候变化的局部影响。但是，这种高分辨率的气候信息并未广泛纳入气候变化适应计划。在这项研究中，我们分析了洛杉矶县（CA）的气候模型生成的高分辨率（1.24×1.24英里网格）温度数据。数据包括预计的地面空气温度和基线期（1981-2000年）至21世纪中叶期（2041-2060年）之间的极端高温天数（每日最高温度超过95°F）。数据假设人为导致的温室气体排放将在当前水平上持续增加，而现有建筑环境不会发生变化。我们发现洛杉矶县的气候变化影响具有明显的地理异质性。也，

外卖练习

规划人员应与气候科学家合作，以获取和使用高分辨率气候数据。在气候变化时代的计划制定中必须授权使用高分辨率气候数据。许多地区的极端高温事件可能具有不同的空间格局，因此需要量身定制的气候适应计划。例如，在洛杉矶县，可能需要阻止内陆山谷地区继续郊区化，而影响最小的沿海地区则可以考虑采用更密集的包容性再开发策略。