ABSTRACT

Ageing populations have been identified as a looming fiscal threat to many developed nations across the world. However, in Japan, both the scale of the problem and the institutional context is such that it represents a rather desperate predicament. Within the next 25 years it is projected that over a quarter of Japan’s local governments will have the majority of their population composed of senior citizens. This is problematic because as populations age, needs increase but revenue capacity simultaneously decreases. We apply a commonly employed success framework with a view to demonstrating how it can be used to guide implementation of some of the most prominent policies thus far canvassed in Japan to mitigate these fiscal challenges. We conclude with some comments regarding the importance of good policy design to successfully navigate the age of the aged.

摘要

人口老龄化已被确定为对世界许多发达国家的迫在眉睫的财政威胁。但是，在日本，问题的规模和体制背景都使它陷入了非常绝望的困境。预计在未来25年内，日本超过四分之一的地方政府将有大部分人口为老年人。这是有问题的，因为随着人口的老龄化，需求增加，而收入能力却同时下降。我们采用了一个常用的成功框架，以说明如何用它来指导日本迄今为止为减轻这些财政挑战而制定的一些最重要的政策的实施。