Air traffic operations are significantly impacted by weather conditions. These external factors may impose operational constraints and generate demand-capacity imbalances, leading to reduced on-time performance, additional airline costs and inconveniences to passengers. Efficient management of such disruptions requires an understanding of the main causes of flight delays towards increasing their predictability. In this study, we investigate the impacts of airport surface weather conditions on the likelihood of flight delays for the Brazilian domestic air transportation system. We use historical flight schedule, on-time performance and weather data and estimate a logit model to analyze how different meteorological variables at the airport of destination affect the probability of a delayed arrival. We obtain empirical evidence for the impacts of low ceiling and visibility conditions, precipitation and wind gusts on the likelihood of arrival delays for the set of Brazilian airports analyzed.

空中交通运营受天气状况的影响很大。这些外部因素可能会限制运营，并导致需求容量不平衡，从而导致准时性能下降，航空公司的额外成本以及给乘客带来的不便。有效管理此类中断需要了解航班延误的主要原因，以提高其可预测性。在这项研究中，我们调查了巴西国内航空运输系统的机场地面天气状况对航班延误可能性的影响。我们使用历史航班时刻表，准时性能和天气数据，并估计一个logit模型，以分析目的地机场的不同气象变量如何影响延迟到达的可能性。