Investments in lifelong learning may create unsatisfactory results, and this could potentially contribute to the reproduction of inequalities. We argue that the process is related to the accumulation of opportunities and barriers for participation in training, which can lock individuals in disadvantageous path-dependent trajectories. We take a longitudinal approach to analyse whether participation in training in older age is path-dependent, and whether this path dependency is related to institutional contexts. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we trace individual training trajectories in the population aged 50+ in twelve European countries between 2010 and 2015 (27 370 respondents). Hierarchical Bayesian logit models serve to assess the probability of training during the sixth wave, with a lagged dependent variable as a predictor. Results suggest that training participation is path-dependent and participation in training is limited for people who have not trained previously. It is also related to macrostructural context: path dependency is lower in countries with stronger knowledge economies, stronger emphasis on education, and a proactive ageing climate. Recognising path dependency can help to improve access to training and design policies that address problems of cohesion, active ageing and adult learning.

对终身学习的投资可能会产生不尽如人意的结果，这可能会助长不平等现象的再现。我们认为该过程与参与培训的机会和障碍的积累有关，这可能会将个人锁定在不利的路径依赖轨迹中。我们采用纵向方法来分析老年人参与培训是否具有路径依赖性，以及这种路径依赖性是否与制度环境相关。我们使用来自欧洲健康、老龄化和退休调查 (SHARE) 的数据，追踪 2010 年至 2015 年间 12 个欧洲国家 50 岁以上人口（27370 名受访者）的个人训练轨迹。分层贝叶斯逻辑模型用于评估第六波训练的概率，以滞后因变量作为预测变量。结果表明，培训参与具有路径依赖性，并且对于以前没有接受过培训的人来说，培训参与是有限的。它还与宏观结构背景有关：知识经济更强、更重视教育和积极老龄化气候的国家的路径依赖性较低。认识到路径依赖可以帮助改善获得培训和设计政策的机会，以解决凝聚力、积极老龄化和成人学习等问题。更加重视教育，积极营造老龄化氛围。认识到路径依赖可以帮助改善获得培训和设计政策的机会，以解决凝聚力、积极老龄化和成人学习等问题。更加重视教育，积极营造老龄化氛围。认识到路径依赖可以帮助改善获得培训和设计政策的机会，以解决凝聚力、积极老龄化和成人学习等问题。