Purpose

This study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on some specific areas of agricultural production in Quang Nam Province, including assessing the possibility of losing agricultural land owing to sea level rise; assessing the impact on rice productivity; and, assessing the impact on crop water demand.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the method of collecting and processing statistics data; method of analysis, comparison and evaluation; method of geographic information system; method of using mathematical model; and method of professional solution, to assess the impacts of climate change.

Findings

Evaluation results in Quang Nam Province show that, by the end of the 21st century, winter–spring rice productivity may decrease by 33%, while summer–autumn rice productivity may decrease by 49%. Under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, water demand increases by 31.1% compared to the baseline period, of which the winter–spring crop increases by 28.4%, and the summer–autumn crop increased by 34.3%. Under RCP 8.5 scenario, water demand increases by 54.1% compared to the baseline period, of which the winter–spring crop increases by 46.7%, and the summer–autumn crop increased by 63.1%. The area of agricultural land likely to be inundated by sea level rise at 50 cm is 418.32 ha, and at 80 cm, it is 637.07 ha.

Originality/value

To propose adaptation solution to avoid the impacts of climate change on agriculture, it is necessary to consider about the impact on losing land for agriculture, the impact on rice productivity, assess the impact on crop water demand and other. The result of this assessment is useful for policymakers for forming the agriculture development plan.

中文翻译：

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使用建模方法评估气候变化对越南广南省农业的影响

目的

这项研究旨在评估气候变化对广南省某些特定农业生产领域的影响，包括评估由于海平面上升而失去农业用地的可能性；评估对稻米生产力的影响；评估对作物需水量的影响。

设计/方法/方法

本研究采用了收集和处理统计数据的方法。分析，比较和评估方法；地理信息系统的方法；数学模型的使用方法；和专业解决方案的方法，以评估气候变化的影响。

发现

广南省的评估结果表明，到21世纪末，冬春季稻的生产力可能下降33％，而夏秋季稻的生产力可能下降49％。在有代表性的浓缩途径（RCP）4.5情景下，需水量比基准期增加了31.1％，其中冬春季作物增加了28.4％，夏秋季作物增加了34.3％。在RCP 8.5情景下，需水量比基准期增加了54.1％，其中冬春季作物增加了46.7％，夏秋季作物增加了63.1％。50厘米处海平面上升可能淹没的农田面积为418.32公顷，而80厘米处为637.07公顷。

创意/价值

为了提出避免气候变化对农业的影响的适应解决方案，有必要考虑对流失农业土地的影响，对稻米生产力的影响，评估对作物需水量的影响等。评估的结果对于决策者制定农业发展计划很有用。