Using novel weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our main results show that warm weeks led to elevated mortality in the late nineteenth century, mainly due to infant deaths from digestive diseases. However, this pattern largely disappeared after WWI as infant digestive diseases became less prevalent. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deaths—equal to 0.9-1.4 percent of all deaths— were averted. These findings show that improving the disease environment can dramatically alter the impact of high temperature on mortality.

中文翻译：

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伦敦的温度、疾病和死亡：分析 1866 年至 1965 年本世纪的每周数据

我们使用 1866 年至 1965 年的伦敦新的每周死亡率数据，分析了随着城市的发展温度和死亡率之间变化的关系。我们的主要结果表明，温暖的几周导致 19 世纪后期死亡率升高，主要是由于婴儿死于消化系统疾病。然而，这种模式在第一次世界大战后基本上消失了，因为婴儿消化系统疾病变得不那么普遍了。由此产生的温度与死亡率关系的变化意味着避免了数千起与高温有关的死亡——相当于所有死亡人数的 0.9-1.4%。这些发现表明，改善疾病环境可以显着改变高温对死亡率的影响。