Systematically modeling human activities and their interactions with complex systems is important in decision making processes. In order to determine appropriate human activities bringing systems to some desired status, integrated analyses combining both components are necessary. However, this can be difficult due to the complexity of the problems and the lack of adequate data. In this work, a framework capable of analyzing system status and human activities as an integrated set is proposed based upon use of a time-dependent Bayesian Network. The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident scenarios are utilized in this work in order to illustrate the framework. Scenarios presented in this work are developed based upon the authors’ interviews with Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) staff who were directly engaged in Fukushima accident mitigation. In this work, we focus upon problems that TEPCO staff found challenging during the Fukushima accident. Two types of tasks, mitigation activities during ongoing accidents and preparation tasks before potential accidents, are considered. The capability of the framework for providing system status, based upon rapidly changing human activities, can enable decision-makers to select appropriate mitigation strategies for use during emergencies. The capability of the framework in comparing multiple preparation efforts can enable decision-makers to identify appropriate strategies in order to prepare for similar future situations. Beyond the examples illustrated here, the proposed framework can be applied to broader fields and support corresponding decisions as long as corresponding human activity and system models are available.

系统地对人类活动及其与复杂系统的交互进行建模在决策过程中很重要。为了确定适当的人类活动，使系统达到某种期望的状态，必须将两个部分结合起来进行综合分析。但是，由于问题的复杂性和缺乏足够的数据，这可能很困难。在这项工作中，基于使用时间相关的贝叶斯网络，提出了一个能够分析系统状态和人类活动为一个集成集合的框架。为了说明该框架，本文使用了2011年福岛第一核电站事故情景。在作者对直接从事福岛事故缓解的东京电力公司（TEPCO）工作人员的采访中，得出了本文中提出的情景。在这项工作中，我们着重解决东京电力公司员工在福岛事故期间发现的难题。考虑了两种类型的任务，即正在进行的事故期间的缓解活动和潜在事故之前的准备任务。基于快速变化的人类活动，提供系统状态的框架的能力可以使决策者选择适当的缓解策略，以在紧急情况下使用。该框架比较多个准备工作的能力可以使决策者确定适当的策略，以便为类似的未来情况做准备。除了此处说明的示例之外，