Groundwater is an important water source for economic activities and human consumption. Currently, this resource is being affected by intensive abstraction, pollution, and climatic change. This study assessed the vulnerability and recharge of groundwater by weighted indices of an aquifer used for agricultural water supply in Chihuahua, Mexico, for current and future conditions. The efficacy of the DRASTIC model and modified versions were compared and were used to assess the vulnerability of a semi-arid aquifer. Furthermore, scenarios of vulnerability and recharge indices were projected to the nearest future (2015-2040) and distant future (2045-2069), through climate-change and land use projections using RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Three vulnerability zones were observed for every index with a common high vulnerability in the regions of agricultural land use. Vulnerability maps were also compared with groundwater-quality (K⁺, Na⁺, and NO₃^-), indicating the southern regions of the aquifer are the most sensitive to pollution of groundwater. Indices with the highest accuracy of vulnerable zones were identified with the new DRASTICL and DRSTIL methods. The results obtained by the application of climate change scenarios show that the area of highest recharge decreases while aquifer vulnerability increases. Thus, the deficit problem of replenishment from recharge to the aquifer remains from present conditions, and has the potential to increase in the future. In turn, these consequences will also cause vulnerability of economic activities from the region and finally, of social and economic security of the local populations that depend on the resource for agricultural water supply as well as for water, land, and food security.

地下水是经济活动和人类消费的重要水源。当前，这种资源正受到密集的抽象，污染和气候变化的影响。这项研究根据墨西哥奇瓦瓦州当前和未来的状况，通过加权用于农业供水的含水层的加权指数评估了地下水的脆弱性和补给。比较了DRASTIC模型和修改版本的功效，并将其用于评估半干旱含水层的脆弱性。此外，通过使用RCP 4.5和8.5的气候变化和土地利用预测，预测了脆弱性和补给指数的情景到最近的未来（2015-2040）和遥远的未来（2045-2069）。在农业土地利用地区，每个指数都观察到三个脆弱性区域，它们具有共同的高度脆弱性。⁺，钠⁺和NO ₃ ^-），表明含水层的南部地区对地下水污染最敏感。使用新的DRASTICL和DRSTIL方法可以识别出脆弱区域的最高准确度的指标。通过应用气候变化情景获得的结果表明，补给量最高的区域减少而含水层的脆弱性增加。因此，从补给含水层补给的赤字问题从目前的情况来看仍然存在，并且有可能在未来增加。反过来，这些后果也将导致该地区经济活动的脆弱性，并最终导致当地人口的社会和经济安全脆弱，而当地人口的社会和经济安全取决于农业供水以及水，土地和粮食安全的资源。