We investigate the impact of large climatological biases in the tropical Atlantic on reanalysis and seasonal prediction performance using the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) in a standard and an anomaly coupled configuration. Anomaly coupling corrects the climatological surface wind and sea surface temperature (SST) fields exchanged between oceanic and atmospheric models, and thereby significantly reduces the climatological model biases of precipitation and SST. NorCPM combines the Norwegian Earth system model with the ensemble Kalman filter and assimilates SST and hydrographic profiles. We perform a reanalysis for the period 1980–2010 and a set of seasonal predictions for the period 1985–2010 with both model configurations. Anomaly coupling improves the accuracy and the reliability of the reanalysis in the tropical Atlantic, because the corrected model enables a dynamical reconstruction that satisfies better the observations and their uncertainty. Anomaly coupling also enhances seasonal prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic to the level of the best models of the North American multi-model ensemble, while the standard model is among the worst. However, anomaly coupling slightly damps the amplitude of Atlantic Niño and Niña events. The skill enhancements achieved by anomaly coupling are largest for forecast started from August and February. There is strong spring predictability barrier, with little skill in predicting conditions in June. The anomaly coupled system show some skill in predicting the secondary Atlantic Niño-II SST variability that peaks in November–December from August 1st.

我们使用标准和异常耦合配置下的挪威气候预测模型（NorCPM），对热带大西洋大气候偏向对再分析和季节性预测性能的影响进行了调查。异常耦合校正了海洋和大气模型之间交换的气候地表风和海表温度（SST）场，从而显着降低了降水和SST的气候模型偏差。NorCPM将挪威地球系统模型与集成卡尔曼滤波器相结合，并吸收了海表温度和水文剖面。我们使用两种模型配置对1980–2010年进行了重新分析，并对1985–2010年进行了一系列季节性预测。异常耦合提高了热带大西洋重新分析的准确性和可靠性，因为校正后的模型可以实现更好地满足观测结果及其不确定性的动态重建。异常耦合还将赤道大西洋的季节性预报技能提高到北美多模式合奏中最佳模型的水平，而标准模型则是最差的模型之一。但是，异常耦合会稍微减弱大西洋Niño和Niña事件的幅度。从八月和二月开始，通过异常耦合实现的技能增强最大。春季的可预见性障碍很强，在六月份的情况预测方面技能很少。异常耦合系统显示出一些预测二次大西洋Niño-IISST变异性的技巧，该变异性于8月1日至11月至12月达到峰值。