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Human capital returns to cash transfers in Uganda: does it matter in the long run?
Journal of Development Effectiveness ( IF 1.067 ) Pub Date : 2019-11-18 , DOI: 10.1080/19439342.2019.1691626
Stephan Dietrich 1 , Daniele Malerba 2 , Armando Barrientos 3 , Franziska Gassmann 1 , Pierre Mohnen 1 , Nyasha Tirivayi 1
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT The paper reports on an ex-ante evaluation of the nationwide scale up of two pilot cash transfer programmes in Uganda. We use panel data to estimate consumption elasticities of child health status and school enrolment. They provide the main parameters of a micro-simulation model predicting cash transfer effects on human capital accumulation and feedback effects on consumption. Quantifying year on year costs and direct and indirect benefits, we track the annual trend in rates of return. The findings indicate important gains in child health, schooling, and income growth associated with programme participation. The rates of return improve over the medium term but remain negative after 10 years. These findings underline the need to regard cash transfers as longer-term social investment instead of short-term costs.

中文翻译:

在乌干达,人力资本返回现金转移:从长远来看是否重要?

摘要本文报道了对乌干达两个试点现金转移计划在全国范围内扩大规模的事前评估。我们使用面板数据估算儿童健康状况和入学率的消费弹性。它们提供了微观模拟模型的主要参数,该模型预测现金转移对人力资本积累的影响以及对消费的反馈影响。量化逐年成本以及直接和间接收益,我们跟踪回报率的年度趋势。研究结果表明,与项目参与相关的儿童健康,教育和收入增长均取得了重要进展。中期回报率有所提高,但10年后仍为负值。这些发现强调,有必要将现金转移视为长期的社会投资而不是短期成本。
更新日期:2019-11-18
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