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Learning adaptation to climate change from past climate extremes:
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ( IF 3.551 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-20 , DOI: 10.1108/ijccsm-09-2018-0065
Jeetendra Prakash Aryal , M.L. Jat , Tek Bahadur Sapkota , Dil Bahadur Rahut , Munmum Rai , Hanuman S. Jat , P.C. Sharma , Clare Stirling

Conservation agriculture-based wheat production system (CAW) can serve as an ex ante measure to minimize loss due to climate risks, especially the extreme rainfall during the wheat production season in India. This study aims to examine whether farmers learn from their past experiences of exposure to climate extremes and use the knowledge to better adapt to future climate extremes.,The authors used data collected from 184 farmers from Haryana over three consecutive wheat seasons from 2013-2014 to 2015-2016 and multivariate logit model to analyse the driver of the adoption of CAW as an ex ante climate risk mitigating strategies based on their learning and censored Tobit model to analyse the intensity of adoption of CAW as an ex ante climate risk mitigation strategy. Farmer’s knowledge and key barriers to the adoption of CAW were determined through focus group discussions.,The analysis shows that the majority of farmers who had applied CAW in the year 2014-2015 (a year with untimely excess rainfall during the wheat season) have continued to practice CAW and have increased the proportion of land area allocated to it. Many farmers shifted from CTW to CAW in 2015-2016.,While farmers now consider CAW as an ex ante measure to climate risks, a technology knowledge gap exists, which limits its adoption. Therefore, designing appropriate methods to communicate scientific evidence is crucial.,This paper uses three years panel data from 184 farm households in Haryana, India, together with focus groups discussions with farmers and interviews with key informants to assess if farmers learn adaptation to climate change from past climate extremes.

中文翻译:

从过去的极端气候中学习对气候变化的适应性:

基于保护性农业的小麦生产系统(CAW)可以作为事前措施,以最大程度地减少由于气候风险而造成的损失,尤其是印度小麦生产季节的极端降雨。这项研究旨在检验农民是否从过去的极端气候暴露经验中学习,并利用这些知识更好地适应未来的极端气候。作者使用了2013年至2014年连续三个季节从哈里亚纳邦184个农民收集的数据2015-2016年和多变量logit模型基于其学习和审查的Tobit模型来分析采用CAW作为事前气候风险缓解策略的驱动因素,以分析采用CAW作为事前气候风险缓解策略的强度。通过焦点小组讨论确定了农民使用CAW的知识和主要障碍。分析显示,大多数农民在2014-2015年(小麦季节降雨过时的年份)使用了CAW实行CAW,并增加了分配给它的土地面积的比例。许多农民在2015-2016年从CTW转移到CAW。尽管现在农民将CAW视为应对气候风险的事前措施,但存在技术知识鸿沟,这限制了CAW的采用。因此,设计适当的方法来传达科学证据至关重要。本文使用了印度哈里亚纳邦184个农户的三年面板数据,
更新日期:2020-01-20
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