Purpose

Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change impacts are exacerbated due to the economy’s heavy dependence on agriculture. The Ethiopian Government has started to implement its climate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy and reduce CO₂ emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of CO₂ emission on agricultural productivity and household welfare.

Design/methodology/approach

This study aims to fill these significant research and knowledge gaps using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to investigate CO₂ emissions’ impact on agricultural performance and household welfare.

Findings

The results indicate that CO₂ emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity and household welfare. Compared to the baseline, real agricultural gross domestic product is projected to be 4.5% lower in the 2020s under a no-CRGE scenario. Specifically, CO₂ emissions lead to a decrease in the production of traded and non-traded crops, but not livestock. Emissions also worsen the welfare of all segments of households, where the most vulnerable groups are the rural-poor households.

Originality/value

The debate in the area is not derived from a rigorous analysis and holistic economy-wide approach. Therefore, the paper fills this gap and is original by value and examines these issues methodically.

中文翻译：

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埃塞俄比亚的二氧化碳排放量，农业生产力和福利

目的

气候变化已成为全球范围内最重要的发展挑战之一。它影响到各个部门，其中农业最为脆弱。在埃塞俄比亚，由于经济严重依赖农业，加剧了气候变化的影响。埃塞俄比亚政府已开始实施其具有气候适应能力的绿色经济（CRGE）战略，并减少CO ₂排放。因此，本研究的目的是检验CO ₂排放对农业生产率和家庭福利的影响。

设计/方法/方法

这项研究旨在使用递归动态可计算一般均衡模型来填补这些重要的研究和知识空白，以调查CO ₂排放对农业绩效和家庭福利的影响。

发现

结果表明，CO ₂排放对农业生产率和家庭福利产生负面影响。与基准相比，在没有CRGE的情况下，到2020年代实际农业国内生产总值预计将下降4.5％。具体而言，CO ₂排放导致贸易和非贸易作物产量的下降，而不是牲畜的产量的下降。排放还恶化了所有家庭的福利，其中最脆弱的群体是农村贫困家庭。

创意/价值

该领域的辩论并非源自严格的分析和整体的整体经济方法。因此，本文填补了这一空白，并按价值发表了论文，并有条不紊地研究了这些问题。