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Multifractal analysis of atmospheric carbon emissions and OECD industrial production index
International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ( IF 3.551 ) Pub Date : 2020-04-09 , DOI: 10.1108/ijccsm-08-2019-0050
Sezer Kahyaoglu Bozkus , Hakan Kahyaoglu , Atahirou Mahamane Mahamane Lawali

The purpose of this study aims to analyze the dynamic behavior of the relationship between atmospheric carbon emissions and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) industrial production index (IPI) in the short and long term by applying multifractal techniques.,Multifractal de-trended cross-correlation technique is used for this analysis based on the relevant literature. In addition, it is the most widely used approach to estimate multifractality because it generates robust empirical results against non-stationarities in the time series.,It is revealed that industrial production causes long and short term environmental costs. The OECD IPI and atmospheric carbon emissions were found to have a strong correlation between the time domain. However, this relationship does not mostly take into account the frequency-based correlations with the tail effects caused by shocks that are effective on the economy. In this study, the long-term dependence of the relationship between the OECD IPI and atmospheric carbon emissions differs from the correlation obtained by linear methods, as the analysis is based on the frequency. The major finding is that the Hurst coefficient is in the range 0.40-0.75 indicating.,In this study, the local singular behavior of the time-series is analyzed to test for the multifractality characteristics of the series. In this context, the scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum are obtained to determine the origins of this multifractality. The multifractal time series are defined as the set of points with a given singularity exponent a where this exponent a is illustrated as a fractal with fractal dimension f(α). Therefore, the multifractality term indicates the existence of fluctuations, which are non-uniform and more importantly, their relative frequencies are also scale-dependent.,The results provide information based on the fluctuation in IPI, which determines the main conjuncture of the economy. An optimal strategy for shaping the consequences of climate change resulting from industrial production activities will not only need to be quite comprehensive and global in scale but also policies will need to be applicable to the national and local conditions of the given nation and adaptable to the needs of the country.,The results provide information for the analysis of the environmental cost of climate change depending on the magnitude of the impact on the total supply. In addition to environmental problems, climate change leads to economic problems, and hence, policy instruments are introduced to fight against the adverse effects of it.,This study may be of practical and technical importance in regional climate change forecasting, extreme carbon emission regulations and industrial production resource management in the world economy. Hence, the major contribution of this study is to introduce an approach to sustainability for the analysis of the environmental cost of growth in the supply side economy.

中文翻译:

大气碳排放和经合组织工业生产指数的多重分形分析

本研究的目的是通过应用多重分形技术来分析大气碳排放量与经济合作与发展组织(OECD)工业生产指数(IPI)之间的关系的短期和长期动态行为。根据相关文献,使用去趋势互相关技术进行此分析。另外,它是最广泛使用的估计多重分形性的方法,因为它针对时间序列中的非平稳性生成了可靠的经验结果。研究表明,工业生产会造成长期和短期的环境成本。OECD IPI与大气碳排放在时域之间具有很强的相关性。然而,这种关系在很大程度上没有考虑到基于频率的相关性与经济有效冲击所引起的尾部效应。在这项研究中,经合组织IPI与大气碳排放之间关系的长期依赖性与线性方法获得的相关性不同,因为分析是基于频率的。主要发现是Hurst系数在0.40-0.75范围内。在本研究中,分析了时间序列的局部奇异行为,以测试该序列的多重分形特征。在这种情况下,获得比例指数和奇异谱以确定该多重分形的起源。多重分形时间序列定义为具有给定奇异指数a的点集,其中该指数a表示为具有分形维f(α)的分形。因此,多重分形项表示波动的存在,它们是不均匀的,更重要的是,它们的相对频率也与尺度有关。结果提供了基于IPI波动的信息,这决定了经济的主要结局。塑造工业生产活动导致的气候变化后果的最佳策略不仅需要非常全面和规模化,而且政策还必须适用于给定国家的国家和地方条件并适应需求国家的。,结果为根据气候变化对总供应量的影响程度的环境成本分析提供了信息。除环境问题外,气候变化还导致经济问题,因此,引入了应对气候变化不利影响的政策工具。该研究对于区域气候变化预测,极端碳排放法规和世界经济中的工业生产资源管理。因此,这项研究的主要贡献是为分析供应方经济增长的环境成本引入了一种可持续性方法。气候变化导致经济问题,因此,引入了应对气候变化不利影响的政策手段。这项研究对于区域气候变化预测,极端碳排放法规和工业生产资源管理具有重要的现实和技术意义。世界经济。因此,这项研究的主要贡献是为分析供应方经济增长的环境成本引入了一种可持续性方法。气候变化导致经济问题,因此,引入了应对气候变化不利影响的政策手段。这项研究对于区域气候变化预测,极端碳排放法规和工业生产资源管理具有重要的现实和技术意义。世界经济。因此,这项研究的主要贡献是为分析供应方经济增长的环境成本引入了一种可持续性方法。
更新日期:2020-04-09
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