Changing climates affect human societies differently depending on societal structures, cultural perceptions and their relative vulnerability and resilience. In this study, we explore the complex relationship between climate, conflict and society in nineteenth century Zululand. The paper first reviews current debates surrounding the links between climatic change, societal transformation and the rise of the Zulu Kingdom from the late-eighteenth to early-nineteenth centuries. It then considers new empirical evidence relating to conflict and socio-economic changes at a local scale in Zululand from the early-mid-nineteenth century onwards, using a combination of unpublished archival materials written by missionaries and other observers, together with oral histories and traditions. Our analysis highlights how changing precipitation patterns, especially towards drier conditions, may have contributed to changes in societal responses, including dominant narratives about rain-control, the migration and dissolution of society, and conflicts and unrest. We suggest that temporal differences in these responses were contingent upon the role of leaders, power structures, and the willingness and ability of leaders to yield this power. The case of nineteenth century Zululand exemplifies the complexity of environment-society interactions, and strengthens the call for a thorough scrutiny of the narratives of social unrest in specific socio-cultural contexts.

中文翻译：

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气候、冲突和社会：对 19 世纪祖鲁兰极端天气的反应变化

气候变化对人类社会的影响因社会结构、文化观念及其相对脆弱性和复原力而异。在这项研究中，我们探讨了 19 世纪祖鲁兰气候、冲突和社会之间的复杂关系。该论文首先回顾了当前围绕气候变化、社会转型与 18 世纪末至 19 世纪初祖鲁王国崛起之间联系的争论。然后，结合传教士和其他观察员撰写的未出版档案材料以及口述历史和传统，考虑了与 19 世纪中叶以来祖鲁兰当地规模的冲突和社会经济变化有关的新经验证据. 我们的分析强调了降水模式的变化，尤其是在更干燥的条件下，可能促成了社会反应的变化，包括有关雨水控制、社会迁移和解体以及冲突和动乱的主要叙述。我们认为，这些反应的时间差异取决于领导者的角色、权力结构以及领导者交出这种权力的意愿和能力。19 世纪祖鲁兰的案例体现了环境与社会相互作用的复杂性，并加强了对特定社会文化背景下社会动荡叙事进行彻底审查的呼吁。我们认为，这些反应的时间差异取决于领导者的角色、权力结构以及领导者交出这种权力的意愿和能力。19 世纪祖鲁兰的案例体现了环境与社会相互作用的复杂性，并加强了对特定社会文化背景下社会动荡叙事进行彻底审查的呼吁。我们认为，这些反应的时间差异取决于领导者的角色、权力结构以及领导者交出这种权力的意愿和能力。19 世纪祖鲁兰的案例体现了环境与社会相互作用的复杂性，并加强了对特定社会文化背景下社会动荡叙事进行彻底审查的呼吁。