Because of racially disproportionate imprisonment rates, the literature on mass incarceration has focused on the labor market consequence of imprisonment and the implications of those effects for racial inequality. Yet, the effects of imprisonment itself, as distinct from conviction, are not well understood. The authors leverage a natural experiment based on the random assignment of judges to felony cases in Michigan to examine the causal effect of being sentenced to prison as compared to probation, stratifying by race and work history. The most widespread effect of imprisonment on employment occurs through incapacitation in prison, both for the initial prison sentence and through the heightened risk of subsequent imprisonment. Negative postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment, employment stability, and employment outside the secondary labor market are concentrated among whites with a presentence work history. Postrelease effects of imprisonment on employment among those with no work history are positive but fade over time.

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监禁和劳动力市场结果：来自自然实验的证据

由于种族间不成比例的监禁率，关于大规模监禁的文献主要关注监禁对劳动力市场的影响以及这些影响对种族不平等的影响。然而，与定罪不同，监禁本身的影响尚不清楚。作者利用基于密歇根州重罪案件随机分配法官的自然实验来检查被判入狱与缓刑相比的因果关系，并按种族和工作经历进行分层。监禁对就业的最广泛影响是在监狱中丧失行为能力，包括最初的监禁和随后监禁的风险增加。监禁对就业、就业稳定性的负面释放后影响，二级劳动力市场以外的就业集中在有工作经历的白人中。在没有工作历史的人中，监禁对就业的释放后影响是积极的，但随着时间的推移逐渐消退。