Although the hypothesis that formal childcare reconciles work and family life – and thus stimulates the transition to parenthood – is theoretically well-grounded and partially empirically supported, available literature has hitherto insufficiently acknowledged differential effects by population subgroups. This is remarkable as population subgroups are likely to exhibit different labour market opportunities and opportunity costs of childbearing, varying attitudes toward work-family combination and the use of formal childcare, and differential institutional knowledge with respect to formal childcare. Using unique register-data for the complete residential Belgian population at the turn of the century, this study applies random and fixed effects hazard models to assess varying associations between local childcare availability and dual earner fertility by level of education, working hours and migration background. Results indicate that lagged variation in childcare coverage across and within municipalities over time is positively associated to first birth hazards for all types of dual earner couples. Whereas varying effects by level of education indicate social differentiation in the sense that the positive impact of local childcare coverage is stronger for highly educated couples, differences by working hours and migration background are more limited and insignificant. The Belgian context provides an excellent laboratory to address this topic for two reasons. First, as a result of its top-ranked position with respect to formal childcare during the 2000s, the results are of interest to countries with lower formal childcare coverage. Second, Belgium exhibits considerable social differentials in labour market opportunities, the uptake and benefits of formal childcare.

尽管正式的儿童保育协调工作和家庭生活——从而刺激向为人父母的转变——的假设在理论上是有充分根据的，并且在一定程度上得到了实证支持，但迄今为止，可用的文献并没有充分认识到人口亚群的不同影响。这是值得注意的，因为人口亚群可能表现出不同的劳动力市场机会和生育的机会成本、对工作与家庭的结合和使用正规儿童保育的不同态度，以及对正规儿童保育的不同机构知识。使用世纪之交比利时完整居住人口的独特登记数据，本研究应用随机和固定效应风险模型，根据教育水平、工作时间和移民背景评估当地儿童保育可用性与双职工生育率之间的不同关联。结果表明，随着时间的推移，城市之间和城市内部儿童保育覆盖率的滞后变化与所有类型的双职工夫妇的第一次生育风险呈正相关。虽然受教育水平的不同影响表明社会分化，因为当地儿童保育覆盖率对受过高等教育的夫妇的积极影响更大，但工作时间和移民背景的差异更为有限和微不足道。出于两个原因，比利时的背景为解决该主题提供了一个极好的实验室。第一的，由于其在 2000 年代正规儿童保育方面名列前茅，因此正规儿童保育覆盖率较低的国家对结果很感兴趣。其次，比利时在劳动力市场机会、正规儿童保育的接受度和收益方面表现出相当大的社会差异。