This paper argues that output can respond to public education spending in a delayed and persistent manner through human capital accumulation. We refer to this as a “time-release” response, reflecting that the output response grows as students exposed to increased expenditures sequentially enter the labor market. We first develop and calibrate a stochastic overlapping generations model to formalize the propagation of spending shocks over a long time horizon. We then empirically explore this time-release aspect of shocks to government education expenditures on output using US state-level data for the period 1963–2016 and a panel structural vector autoregression methodology. Consistent with the model, our empirical results show that the dynamic response of output to shocks to government education expenditures is positive, significant, and long-lasting.

本文认为，产出可以通过人力资本积累以延迟和持续的方式响应公共教育支出。我们将此称为“时间释放”反应，反映出随着学生面临支出增加而依次进入劳动力市场，产出反应也会增加。我们首先开发和校准了一个随机重叠世代模型，以正式确定支出冲击在很长一段时间内的传播。然后，我们使用 1963 年至 2016 年期间的美国州级数据和面板结构向量自回归方法，实证探索政府教育支出对产出的冲击的时间释放方面。与模型一致，我们的实证结果表明，产出对政府教育支出冲击的动态响应是积极的、显着的，