Abstract

In contrast to the conventional view that analysts forecast optimistically, we provide evidence of the Negativity Bias. Analysts show negative forecast bias associated with their relative local income growth, whether the growth is positive or negative. The bias is stronger for negative growth than for positive growth. The negative bias also directly affects the bias of the next analysts of the same and peer earnings being forecast. Our results suggest non-fundamental factors at work.

中文翻译：

---

分析师预测的负偏差

摘要

与分析师乐观预测的传统观点相反，我们提供了负面偏见的证据。无论增长是正数还是负数，分析师都显示出与他们的相对本地收入增长相关的负面预测偏差。负增长的偏向要强于正增长。负面偏见也直接影响下一位分析师对同一预测和同业盈利的偏见。我们的结果表明工作中的非基本因素。