Energy system optimization models often incorporate climate change impacts to examine different energy futures and draw insights that inform policy. However, increased risk of extreme weather events from climate change has proven more difficult to model. Here, we present an energy system optimization model that incorporates hurricane risks by combining storm probabilities with infrastructure fragility curves, and demonstrate its utility in the context of Puerto Rico, an island territory of the United States that had its energy system severely damaged by Hurricane Maria in 2017. The model assesses the potential to change grid architecture, fuel mix and grid hardening measures considering hurricane impacts as well as climate mitigation policies. When hurricane trends are included, 2040 electricity cost projections increase by 32% based on historical hurricane frequencies and by 82% for increased hurricane frequencies. Transitioning to renewables and natural gas reduces costs and emissions independent of climate mitigation policies.

能源系统优化模型通常结合气候变化影响来检查不同的能源未来并得出为政策提供信息的见解。然而，事实证明，气候变化导致的极端天气事件风险增加更难以建模。在这里，我们提出了一个能源系统优化模型，该模型通过将风暴概率与基础设施脆弱性曲线相结合，将飓风风险纳入其中，并在波多黎各的背景下展示了其实用性，波多黎各是美国的一个岛屿领土，其能源系统受到飓风玛丽亚的严重破坏2017 年。该模型评估了考虑飓风影响以及气候缓解政策改变电网架构、燃料组合和电网强化措施的潜力。当包括飓风趋势时，根据历史飓风频率，2040 年电力成本预测增加 32%，飓风频率增加 82%。过渡到可再生能源和天然气可降低成本和排放，而不受气候缓解政策的影响。