As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

随着对惩教人员进行风险评估的使用增加，人们担心这些工具会加剧现有的种族和民族差异。虽然由此引起的大部分注意力都集中在算法的设计方式上，但相对较少地考虑了如何使用风险评估。为此，本研究测试风险原则的应用是否有助于保持预测准确性，同时减少差异。本研究使用从明尼苏达州监狱释放的 9,529 名囚犯的样本，这些囚犯在监禁期间多次接受全自动风险评估，本研究依靠实际和模拟数据来检查计划分配决定对风险水平变化的影响。摄入释放。研究结果表明，虽然风险原则在实践中得到了一定程度的应用，但模拟结果表明，更多地遵守风险原则将增加风险水平的降低，并最大限度地减少摄入量的差异。模拟数据进一步显示，不仅可以通过应用风险原则，还可以通过扩大高风险囚犯的计划能力以充分降低他们的风险来实现最有利的结果。