Abstract

While remote camera surveys have the potential to improve the accuracy of recreational fishing estimates, missing data are common and require robust analytical techniques to impute. Time-lapse cameras are being used in Western Australia to monitor recreational boating activities, but outages have occurred. Generalized linear mixed effect models formulated in a fully conditional specification multiple imputation framework were used to reconstruct missing data, with climatic and some temporal classifications as covariates. Using a complete 12-month camera record of hourly counts of recreational powerboat retrievals, data were simulated based on ten observed camera outage patterns, with a missing proportion of between 0.06 and 0.61. Nine models were evaluated, including Poisson and negative binomial models, and their associated zero-inflated variants. The imputed values were cross-validated against actual observations using percent bias, mean absolute error, root mean square error, and skill score as performance measures. In 90% of the cases, 95% confidence intervals for the total imputed estimates from at least one of the models contained the total actual counts. With no systematic trends in performance among the models, zero-inflated Poisson and its bootstrapping variant models consistently ranked among the top 3 models and possessed the narrowest confidence intervals. The robustness and generality of the imputation framework were demonstrated using other camera datasets with distinct characteristics. The results provide reliable estimates of the number of boat retrievals for subsequent estimates of fishing effort and provide time series data on boat-based activity.

中文翻译：

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归因于休闲钓鱼调查中使用的延时摄影机丢失数据

摘要

尽管远程摄像机勘测有可能提高休闲捕鱼估算的准确性，但丢失的数据很普遍，需要可靠的分析技术来估算。西澳大利亚州使用延时摄影机监视休闲划船活动，但发生故障。在全条件规范多重插补框架中制定的广义线性混合效应模型用于重建缺失的数据，其中气候和某些时间分类为协变量。使用完整的12个月相机记录的娱乐性摩托艇每小时小时计数，基于10个观察到的相机停机模式模拟了数据，丢失比例在0.06到0.61之间。评估了9个模型，包括泊松模型和负二项式模型及其关联的零膨胀变体。使用百分比偏差，平均绝对误差，均方根误差和技能得分作为绩效指标，将估算值与实际观察值进行交叉验证。在90％的情况下，至少其中一个模型的总估算估算值的95％置信区间包含实际总数。由于模型之间没有系统的性能趋势，因此零膨胀的Poisson及其自举变量模型始终位居前三名，并且置信区间最窄。插补框架的鲁棒性和通用性通过使用其他具有独特特征的相机数据集得到了证明。结果为随后的捕捞努力估计提供了可靠的船只回收数量估计，并提供了有关基于船只的活动的时间序列数据。