The supply of propagules mediates recruitment and population dynamics, thereby driving community resilience following disturbances. These relationships are of interest on tropical reefs, where coral populations have drastically declined in abundance and sexual recruitment is the only means by which they will recover. To better understand the causes and implications of variation in this vital rate (i.e., recruitment), coral recruitment was measured in Mo'orea, French Polynesia, and St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, using settlement tiles deployed from 2005 to 2019. The results were used to test two hypotheses: (1) annual variation in recruitment is a weak predictor of long‐term variation in recruitment, but (2) it is associated with seawater temperature. Coral recruitment varied over space and time, so that differences in recruitment between consecutive years were uninformative of long‐term trends. Recruitment varied among years in an apparently chaotic manner, but the variation reflected linear and quadratic associations with mean annual temperature and the daily variation in temperature. These associations are consistent with theory addressing the mechanisms by which temperature affects coral larvae and recruitment. Comprehension of these mechanisms is required to accurately interpret evidence of coral recruitment collapse, and to elucidate the conditions favoring recovery of coral communities through recruitment.

中文翻译：

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珊瑚募集的时空变化及其与海水温度的关系

繁殖物的供应介导了招募和人口动态，从而在受到干扰后推动了社区的复原力。这些关系在热带珊瑚礁上很有趣，那里的珊瑚种群数量急剧减少，而性征募是恢复它们的唯一手段。为了更好地了解此生命率变化（例如，征募）的原因和影响，使用从2005年至2019年部署的定居砖对法属波利尼西亚的Mo'orea和美属维尔京群岛圣约翰进行了珊瑚征募的测量。结果被用来检验两个假设：（1）招聘的年度变化是长期招聘变化的弱预测指标，但（2）与海水温度有关。珊瑚的招募随着时间和空间的变化而变化，因此，连续几年之间的招聘差异无法反映长期趋势。招聘各年之间以明显混乱的方式变化，但是该变化反映了线性和二次关系与年平均温度和温度的每日变化。这些关联与解决温度影响珊瑚幼虫和补充的机制的理论相一致。必须理解这些机制，才能准确地解释珊瑚招募失败的证据，并阐明有利于通过招募恢复珊瑚群落的条件。但是该变化反映了年平均温度和温度的每日变化的线性和二次关系。这些关联与解决温度影响珊瑚幼虫和补充的机制的理论相一致。必须理解这些机制，才能准确地解释珊瑚招募失败的证据，并阐明有利于通过招募恢复珊瑚群落的条件。但是该变化反映了年平均温度和温度的每日变化的线性和二次关系。这些关联与解决温度影响珊瑚幼虫和补充的机制的理论相一致。必须理解这些机制，才能准确地解释珊瑚招募失败的证据，并阐明有利于通过招募恢复珊瑚群落的条件。