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Modeling how to achieve localized areas of reduced white-tailed deer density
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109393
Amanda N. Van Buskirk , Christopher S. Rosenberry , Bret D. Wallingford , Emily Just Domoto , Marc E. McDill , Patrick J. Drohan , Duane R. Diefenbach

Localized management of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) involves the removal of matriarchal family units with the intent to create areas of reduced deer density. However, application of this approach has not always been successful, possibly because of female dispersal and high deer densities. We developed a spatially explicit, agent-based model to investigate the intensity of deer removal required to locally reduce deer density depending on the surrounding deer density, dispersal behavior, and size and shape of the area of localized reduction. Application of this model is illustrated using the example of abundant deer populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Most scenarios required at least 5 years before substantial deer density reductions occurred. Our model indicated that a localized reduction was successful for scenarios in which the surrounding deer density was lowest (30 deer/mi²), localized antlerless harvest rates were 30%, and the removal area was ≥ 5 mi² . When the size of the removal area was < 5 mi2, end population density was highly variable and, in some scenarios, exceeded the initial density. The shape of the area of localized reduction had less influence on the ability to reduce deer density than the size. There were no differences in mean deer density in the same size circle or square removal areas. Similarly, increasing the ratio of sides (length: width) in rectangular removal areas had little influence on the ability to locally reduce deer densities. Situations in which deer density was higher (40 or 50 deer/mi2) required antlerless removal rates to exceed 30% and took more than 5 years to considerably reduce density in the localized area regardless of its size. These results indicate that the size of the removal area, surrounding deer density, and antlerless harvest rate are the most influential factors in locally reducing deer density. Therefore, localized management likely can be an effective strategy for lower density herds, especially in larger removal areas. For high density herds, the success of this strategy would depend most on the ability of resource managers to achieve consistently high antlerless harvest rates.



中文翻译:

建模如何实现降低白尾鹿密度的局部区域

白尾鹿(Odocoileus virginianus)的本地化管理)涉及删除母系家庭单位,目的是创建鹿密度降低的地区。但是,这种方法的应用并不总是成功的,可能是由于雌性的分散和高鹿密度造成的。我们开发了一个基于空间的,基于代理的模型,以研究根据周围的鹿密度,分散行为以及局部缩小区域的大小和形状来局部降低鹿密度所需的鹿去除强度。以美国宾夕法尼亚州丰富的鹿种群为例,说明了该模型的应用。大多数情况下,至少需要5年时间才能使鹿的密度大幅降低。我们的模型表明,对于周围鹿密度最低(30鹿/mi²)的场景,局部降低是成功的,30%,去除面积≥5mi²。当清除区域的大小<5 mi 2时,最终种群密度变化很大,并且在某些情况下超过了初始密度。局部缩小区域的形状对减小鹿密度的能力的影响小于其大小。在相同大小的圆形或正方形去除区域中,平均鹿密度没有差异。类似地,增加矩形去除区域中的边的比率(长度:宽度)对局部降低鹿密度的能力影响很小。鹿密度较高的情况(40或50鹿/ mi 2)要求无鹿角的去除率超过30%,并且要花费5年以上的时间才能大大降低局部区域的密度,而无论其大小如何。这些结果表明,去除区域的大小,周围的鹿密度和无鹿角收获率是局部降低鹿密度的最重要因素。因此,局部管理可能是低密度畜群的有效策略,尤其是在较大的搬迁地区。对于高密度牛群而言,该策略的成功将在很大程度上取决于资源管理者能否实现始终如一的高无鹿角收割率。

更新日期:2021-01-10
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