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The effect of diurnal temperature range on mortality in Kerman, Iran
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-09 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03515-7
Samaneh Torkian , Narges Khanjani , Bahram Bakhtiari , Rahim Sharafkhani

Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is one of the climate indicators likely to be related to human health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relation between mortality and DTR in Kerman, Iran. The DLNM (Distributed Lag Non-linear Model)with a quas/i-Poisson regression model was used to evaluate the effect of DTR on mortality in age and sex groups by controlling the confounding variables (long-term trend of daily mortality, effect of day of the week, holidays, mean temperature, humidity, and air pollution). Since DTR effects on mortality may vary in cold and warm seasons, separate analyses were conducted for cold and warm seasons. DTR showed a non-linear relation with mortality. Mortality increased at the 90th percentile of DTR (CRR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.00–1.34), in lag 0–21 and at the 10th percentile of DTR in lag 0–13 (1.27, 95% CI 1.06–1.52), and lag 0–21 1.35 (95% CI 1.06–1.71). Increased mortality was more observed in the > 60 age group and in men. High levels of DTR after long lags (13 days) in the cold season were associated with increasing mortality. High and low diurnal temperature range may be a risk factor for mortality, especially in the men and elderly.



中文翻译:

日温度范围对伊朗克尔曼死亡率的影响

昼夜温度范围(DTR)是可能与人类健康相关的气候指标之一。这项研究的目的是调查伊朗克尔曼的死亡率与DTR之间的关系。带有quas / i-Poisson回归模型的DLNM(分布式滞后非线性模型)用于通过控制混杂变量(每日死亡率的长期趋势,糖尿病的影响)评估DTR对年龄和性别组死亡率的影响。星期几,节假日,平均温度,湿度和空气污染)。由于DTR对死亡率的影响在寒冷和温暖的季节可能有所不同,因此对寒冷和温暖的季节进行了单独的分析。DTR与死亡率呈非线性关系。死亡率在DTR的第90个百分点CRR = 1.16,95%CI 1.00–1.34),滞后0–21,在DTR的第10个百分位数,滞后0–13(1.27,95%CI 1.06–1.52),滞后0–21 1.35(95%CI) 1.06-1.71)。在> 60岁年龄组和男性中,死亡率增加的更多。寒冷季节长时间滞后(13天)后高水平的DTR与死亡率增加相关。昼夜温度高低可能是导致死亡的危险因素,尤其是在男性和老年人中。

更新日期:2021-01-10
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