The complexity of seismogenesis requires the development of stochastic models, the application of which aims to improve our understanding on the seismic process and the associated underlying mechanisms. Seismogenesis in the Corinth Gulf (Greece) is modeled through a Constrained-Memory Stress Release Model (CM-SRM), which combines the gradual increase of the strain energy due to continuous slow tectonic strain loading and its sudden release during an earthquake occurrence. The data are treated as a point process, which is uniquely defined by the associated conditional intensity function. In the original form of the Simple Stress Release Model (SSRM), the conditional intensity function depends on the entire history of the process. In an attempt to identify the most appropriate parameterization that better fits the data and describes the earthquake generation process, we introduce a constrained “\(m\)-memory” point process, implying that only the \(m\) most recent arrival times are taken into account in the conditional intensity function, for some suitable \(m \in N\). Modeling of this process is performed for moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 5.2) occurring in the Corinth Gulf since 1911, by considering in each investigation different number of steps backward in time. The derived model versions are compared with the SSRM in its original form and evaluated in terms of information criteria and residual analysis.

地震发生的复杂性要求发展随机模型，其应用旨在增进我们对地震过程及其相关潜在机制的理解。通过约束记忆应力释放模型（CM-SRM）对科林斯湾（希腊）的地震发生进行了建模，该模型结合了由于连续缓慢的构造应变加载而导致的应变能的逐渐增加及其在地震发生期间的突然释放。数据被视为一个点过程，由关联的条件强度函数唯一定义。在简单应力释放模型（SSRM）的原始形式中，条件强度函数取决于过程的整个历史。\（m \）- memory”点过程，这意味着对于某些合适的\（m \ in N \），在条件强度函数中仅考虑\\ m最近的到达时间。这个过程的建模是中等地震（进行中号 通过考虑在每个调查不同数目的步骤在时间上向后≥5.2）自1911年以来在科林斯海湾发生。将衍生的模型版本与原始形式的SSRM进行比较，并根据信息标准和残差分析进行评估。