A study is presented on the seismic fragility of a sample of 15 reinforced-concrete school buildings built between 1960 and 1980s in the province of Foggia, Southern Italy, for which near-perfect information is provided on geometrical and mechanical parameters. In particular, the focus is on the application of two probabilistic methods, employing different compromises in terms of complexity versus accuracy. First, a Eurocode 8 compatible nonlinear static approach is employed, which is augmented via the use of the regression expressions of the SPO2FRAG tool to incorporate record-to-record variability. Second, a nonlinear dynamic approach is used to directly account for record-to-record variability via a constrained multi-stripe analysis. In particular, in view of practitioners’ needs (analysis time, computational efforts, software used), a practical mode for application of the multi-stripe analyses is proposed, based on conducting few stripe analyses, in order to predict the behavior of structures in both the elastic and inelastic ranges of response. Both the static and the dynamic approaches are shown to be viable alternatives, offering fairly matching results at the individual building-level and even closer predictions at the level of ensemble regional fragility curves that incorporate both inter-building and intra-building uncertainties.

对意大利南部福贾省建于1960年至1980年代之间的15座钢筋混凝土教学楼的样本的地震易损性进行了研究，提供了关于几何和力学参数的近乎完美的信息。特别地，重点在于两种概率方法的应用，这两种方法在复杂性和准确性方面采用了不同的折衷方案。首先，采用了与Eurocode 8兼容的非线性静态方法，该方法通过使用SPO2FRAG工具的回归表达式进行了增强，以结合记录到记录的可变性。其次，非线性动态方法用于通过约束的多条带分析直接解决记录间的差异。特别是，鉴于从业人员的需求（分析时间，计算工作量，所使用的软件），在进行少量条带分析的基础上，提出了一种实用的多条带分析模式，以便预测弹性和非弹性响应范围内的结构行为。静态和动态方法都是可行的选择，它们在单个建筑物级别提供了相当匹配的结果，在包含建筑物内部和建筑物内部不确定性的整体区域脆弱性曲线级别提供了更精确的预测。