This research is the first to examine the prevalence and dynamics of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease in fine scale subregional units of the United States. In 2015, more non‐Hispanic Whites died than were born in 65 percent of the US counties. This is the highest incidence of non‐Hispanic white natural decrease ever reported. It results from a complex interaction among fertility, mortality, and migration over a protracted period. Spatial regression is used to identify three critical variables (over‐65 population, child–women ratio, and women of childbearing age) that are the immediate demographic causes of this natural decrease. The timely, factual information in this paper provides a demographic context for analysis of the social, political, and policy implications of this emergent demographic phenomenon.

中文翻译：

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美国次国家非西班牙裔白色自然人数减少

这项研究是第一个研究美国小规模次区域单位非西班牙裔白色自然减少的流行情况和动态。2015年，非西班牙裔白人死亡的人数超过了美国65％县的出生人数。这是有史以来非西班牙裔白人自然减少的最高发生率。它是由于生育率，死亡率和长期迁徙之间复杂的相互作用造成的。空间回归用于确定三个关键变量（65岁以上人口，男女比例和育龄妇女），这是自然减少的直接人口统计学原因。本文中的及时事实信息为分析这种新出现的人口现象的社会，政治和政策含义提供了人口统计学背景。