This article challenges the stereotype that North Korea's foreign policy is difficult to predict and thus can only be subjected to ex post study. Based on the naive Bayesian method, we establish a short‐term prediction model for North Korea's nuclear and missile tests using international news reports from North Korean media between 2006 and 2018 as a dataset. The test results show that the overall accuracy rate of the model's predictions of North Korean historical activity is greater than 80%, and its robustness is strong. To solve the problem of relatively delayed data collection, we use the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) time series analysis method to simulate the values of feature sets. The estimated data are statistically reliable, and the prediction accuracy is high. This study proves that although the DPRK is extremely closed, it is possible to make relatively accurate predictions of its behavior using appropriate methods. The modeling approach in this paper can provide inspiration for developing general approaches to national behavior prediction.

中文翻译：

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黑匣子是可预测的吗？寻找预测朝鲜核活动的方法

本文挑战了刻板印象，即朝鲜的外交政策难以预测，因此只能事后研究。基于朴素的贝叶斯方法，我们使用朝鲜媒体在2006年至2018年之间的国际新闻报道作为数据集，建立了朝鲜核试验和导弹试验的短期预测模型。测试结果表明，该模型对朝鲜历史活动预测的总体准确率大于80％，鲁棒性强。为了解决数据收集相对延迟的问题，我们使用季节性自回归综合移动平均线（SARIMA）时间序列分析方法来模拟特征集的值。估计的数据在统计上是可靠的，并且预测精度很高。这项研究证明，尽管朝鲜非常封闭，但可以使用适当的方法对其行为做出相对准确的预测。本文中的建模方法可以为开发民族行为预测的通用方法提供启发。