The paper presents new empirical evidence on the international effects of surprise and anticipated technology shocks in the US. We employ the proxy-instrumental variable approach to identify structural vector autoregressions in a panel setting and empirically study the transmission of US technology innovations to the G7 countries. Both unanticipated and anticipated exogenous technology improvements lead to a strong and persistent real appreciation (from the point of view of the US), along with an expansionary effect on US macroeconomic aggregates, except for hours worked which initially decline. Internationally, there is a strong and precisely estimated positive spillover on foreign output, consumption, and hours worked in the case of surprise shocks, and a weaker but still mostly non-negative effect in the case of technology news shocks. We show that the empirical evidence is qualitatively compatible with the predictions of a New Keynesian international business cycle model with imperfect financial markets, traded and non-traded goods and imported intermediate inputs in production.

本文提供了有关美国意外和预期技术冲击的国际影响的新经验证据。我们采用代理工具变量方法来确定小组环境中的结构矢量自回归，并通过经验研究美国技术创新向G7国家的转移。（从美国的角度来看）未预期的和外在的技术改进都会导致强劲而持续的实际升值（从美国的角度来看），以及对美国宏观经济总量的扩张效应，除了最初减少的工作时间。在国际上，在发生意外冲击的情况下，对外国产出，消费和工作时间有很强且精确的正溢出效应，而在技术新闻冲击情况下，则产生了较弱但主要是非负面的影响。