This paper estimates the natural rate of interest for six small open-economies (Australia, Canada, South Korea, Sweden, Switzerland, and the U.K.) with a structural New Keynesian model using Bayesian techniques. Our empirical analysis establishes the following four main findings: First, we show that the open economy framework provides a better fit of the data than its closed economy counterpart for the six countries we investigate. Second, we also show that, in all six countries, a Taylor (1993)-type monetary policy rule that tracks the Wicksellian short-term natural rate fits the data better than a rule that does not. Third, we show that the natural interest rates of all six countries have shifted downwards and strongly co-moved with each other over the past 35 years. Fourth, our findings illustrate that foreign output shocks (spillovers from the rest of the world) are a major contributor to the dynamics of the natural rate in these six small open-economies and that those natural rates strongly comove also with the existing U.S. natural rate estimates.

本文使用贝叶斯技术，使用结构化的新凯恩斯模型，估算了六个小型开放经济体（澳大利亚，加拿大，韩国，瑞典，瑞士和英国）的自然利率。我们的实证分析建立了以下四个主要发现：首先，我们表明，与我们所调查的六个国家的开放经济框架相比，开放经济框架提供的数据拟合度更高。其次，我们还表明，在所有六个国家中，追踪Wicksellian短期自然利率的泰勒（1993）型货币政策规则比不遵循该规则的数据更适合数据。第三，我们表明，在过去的35年中，所有六个国家的自然利率都在下降并且相互之间有着强烈的联动。第四，