This paper studies the relationship between sovereign debt default and annual GDP growth distinguishing between private and official deals. Using the Synthetic Control Method to analyze 23 official and private defaulters from 1970 to 2017, we find that private defaults generate output losses both during the crisis and persisting over time. Conversely, official defaulters do not show a permanent drop in GDP per capita, neither during the crisis nor in its aftermath. Using panel data analysis to control for the creditors’ loss (haircut), we confirm that official and private defaults may have different effects on GDP growth.

中文翻译：

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违约后的寿命。私人和官方交易

本文研究了主权债务违约与年度GDP增长之间的关系，以区分私人交易和官方交易。使用综合控制方法来分析1970年至2017年期间的23个官方和私人违约者，我们发现私人违约会在危机期间和长期持续产生产出损失。相反，无论是在危机期间还是危机发生后，官方的违约者都没有表现出人均GDP的永久下降。使用面板数据分析来控制债权人的损失（削减），我们确认官方违约和私人违约可能对GDP增长产生不同的影响。