Abstract Purpose Adolescents who are admitted to secure residential care have a high risk of delinquency after discharge. However, this risk may differ between subgroups in this heterogeneous population of adolescents with severe psychiatric problems and disruptive problem behaviour. In this study, the predictive validity of four risk profiles was examined for the number of minor, moderate, and severe offences after discharge from secure residential care. Methods The sample comprised 238 male former patients of a hospital for youth forensic psychiatry and orthopsychiatry in the Netherlands. In three Poisson regression analyses, the relationship between four previously identified risk profiles and the number of minor, moderate, and severe offences after discharge was examined. Results The results showed that the four risk profiles differed significantly in the number of minor, moderate, and severe offences after discharge. Post hoc analysis revealed no mediating effect of termination of treatment on the relationship between the risk profiles and the number of minor, moderate, and severe offending after discharge. Conclusion Adolescents with many risk factors in multiple domains and adolescents with mainly family risks have an increased risk of persistent delinquency after discharge. Treatment should be tailored more effectively to the specific risks and needs of these adolescents.

中文翻译：

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一个不是另一个：预测具有四种风险特征的男性青少年从安全寄宿护理出院后的犯罪行为

摘要 目的 入住有保障的寄宿照料的青少年出院后犯罪的风险很高。然而，这种风险在具有严重精神问题和破坏性问题行为的青少年这一异质人群中的亚组之间可能有所不同。在这项研究中，针对从安全的住宿护理出院后的轻微、中度和严重犯罪的数量，检查了四种风险概况的预测有效性。方法 样本包括荷兰一家青年法医精神病学和正畸精神病学医院的 238 名男性前患者。在三个泊松回归分析中，检查了四个先前确定的风险概况与出院后轻微、中度和严重犯罪数量之间的关系。结果 结果表明，四种风险状况在出院后轻微、中度和严重犯罪的数量上存在显着差异。事后分析显示，终止治疗对风险状况与出院后轻微、中度和严重犯罪数量之间的关系没有中介作用。结论 多领域危险因素多的青少年和以家庭风险为主的青少年出院后持续犯罪的风险增加。治疗应更有效地针对这些青少年的特定风险和需求进行调整。和出院后的严重犯罪。结论 多领域危险因素多的青少年和以家庭风险为主的青少年出院后持续犯罪的风险增加。治疗应更有效地针对这些青少年的特定风险和需求进行调整。和出院后的严重犯罪。结论 多领域危险因素多的青少年和以家庭风险为主的青少年出院后持续犯罪的风险增加。治疗应更有效地针对这些青少年的特定风险和需求进行调整。