The federal civil service system is widely regarded as obsolete. The pay of federal employees bears little relation to the market, narrowly defined jobs hamper the assignment of tasks, and byzantine hiring rules impede the procurement of needed skills. The theory of punctuated equilibrium holds that an episode of rapid and dramatic change portends, that the pressures for change will build and that some exogenous event will trigger a reform event similar to what happened in the mid-2000s subsequent to the 9/11 terrorist incident. Does another episode of punctuated equilibrium impend or is change more likely to occur in an incremental manner? Distinctive features of the policy subsystem make evident the improbability of another episode of “grand reform.” Recent developments further highlight a dynamic element whereby small-scale adjustments are being employed to address some of the system’s most dysfunctional aspects.

联邦公务员制度被普遍认为已过时。联邦雇员的工资与市场关系不大，狭义的工作阻碍了任务的分配，拜占庭式的雇用规则阻碍了所需技能的采购。标点均衡理论认为，快速而戏剧性的变化预示着变化，变革的压力将建立，某些外源性事件将触发类似于2000年中期9/11恐怖事件之后发生的改革事件。 。标点均衡的另一事件即将发生还是更可能以增量方式发生变化？政策子系统的鲜明特征使“大改革”另一回合不可能实现。