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Spatial interference between infectious hotspots: Epidemic condensation and optimal windspeed
International Journal of Modern Physics C ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1142/s0129183121500443
Johannes Dieplinger 1 , Sauro Succi 1, 2, 3
Affiliation  

We discuss the effects of spatial interference between two infectious hotspots as a function of the mobility of individuals (wind speed) between the two and their relative degree of infectivity. As long as the upstream hotspot is less contagious than the downstream one, increasing the wind speed leads to a monotonic decrease of the infection peak in the downstream hotspot. Once the upstream hotspot becomes about between twice and five times more infectious than the downstream one, an optimal wind speed emerges, whereby a local minimum peak intensity is attained in the downstream hotspot, along with a local maximum beyond which the beneficial effect of the wind is restored. Since this nonmonotonic trend is reminiscent of the equation of state of nonideal fluids, we dub the above phenomena “epidemic condensation”. When the relative infectivity of the upstream hotspot exceeds about a factor five, the beneficial effect of the wind above the optimal speed is completely lost: any wind speed above the optimal one leads to a higher infection peak. It is also found that spatial correlation between the two hotspots decay much more slowly than their inverse distance. It is hoped that the above findings may offer a qualitative clue for optimal confinement policies between different cities and urban agglomerates.

中文翻译:

传染热点之间的空间干扰:流行病凝结和最佳风速

我们讨论了两个传染性热点之间空间干扰的影响,作为两者之间个体流动性(风速)及其相对传染性程度的函数。只要上游热点的传染性低于下游热点,增加风速就会导致下游热点的感染峰值单调下降。一旦上游热点的传染性比下游热点高出大约两倍到五倍,就会出现最佳风速,从而在下游热点达到局部最小峰值强度,同时达到局部最大值,风的有益影响超过该最大值被恢复。由于这种非单调趋势让人想起非理想流体的状态方程,我们将上述现象称为“流行凝聚”。当上游热点的相对传染性超过约五倍时,风速超过最佳风速的有利影响完全丧失:任何风速超过最佳风速都会导致更高的感染峰值。还发现两个热点之间的空间相关性衰减比它们的反距离慢得多。希望上述研究结果可为不同城市和城市群之间的最佳封闭政策提供定性线索。
更新日期:2021-01-06
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