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Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil
Journal of Mathematics in Industry Pub Date : 2021-01-06 , DOI: 10.1186/s13362-020-00098-w
Luís Tarrataca 1 , Claudia Mazza Dias 2 , Diego Barreto Haddad 1 , Edilson Fernandes De Arruda 3, 4
Affiliation  

The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways. The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task. This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least studied countries, namely Brazil. Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down. However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted. This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally. This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy. Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to gain more insight by developing a neural regressor. We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19. We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.

中文翻译:

拉平曲线:针对 COVID-19 的开关锁定策略在巴西的应用

当前的 COVID-19 大流行正在以不同的方式影响不同的国家。报告技术的多样性以及漏报和预算限制等其他问题使得预测病毒的传播和致死率成为一项具有挑战性的任务。这项工作试图更好地了解 COVID-19 将如何影响研究最少的国家之一,即巴西。目前,巴西多个州处于封锁状态。然而,取消此类措施存在政治压力。这项工作考虑了这种终止对病毒在当地的进化方式产生的影响。这是通过使用开/关策略扩展 SEIR 模型来完成的。鉴于 SEIR 的简单性,我们还尝试通过开发神经回归器来获得更多见解。我们选择采用当前临床研究已确定与 COVID-19 致死率有关的特征。我们讨论如何处理这些数据以获得可靠的评估。
更新日期:2021-01-07
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