This paper reviews achievements and findings from studies associated with numerical modeling of tsunami since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, and addresses challenges for future advances. The topics cover improvements in tsunami numerical modeling including multi-physics simulations, applications to source modeling, hazard assessment and real-time forecasting and warning. During the last 10 years, tsunami numerical modeling has been improved, validated and applied to better predict tsunami’s behavior and impacts, with aids from the groundbreaking data of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake tsunami. Marked progresses have been made for propagation and inundation modeling, multi-physics simulations such as sediment transport modeling and real-time forecasting and warning. Sediment transport modeling since the Tohoku earthquake tsunami has shown that it may profit from bridging different disciplines to gain further advance in disaster science. Despite the progresses, further exploration for better accuracy and capability, and improved understanding of model limitations and uncertainties is needed. Source modeling of the Tohoku earthquake tsunami, with aids from tsunami records and other geophysical datasets, have provided detailed depiction of the spatial distribution of initial water level, fault slip and mechanism and process of tsunami amplification. To improve assessment of tsunami hazards and related damages, the source features of the Tohoku earthquake tsunami were characterized and applied to hazard assessments of future tsunamis in other areas. The characterization will benefit from not overlooking ‘unexpected’ hazards and damages, although some other processes, such as rupture propagation and submarine mass failure, cannot be excluded from uncertainty quantification in tsunami source modeling. As in past years, tsunami numerical modeling will play a crucial role in policy making and consensus building for tsunami disaster mitigation actions, with efforts for better transmission of the model’s intent, limitation and uncertainty.

本文回顾了自2011年东北地震以来与海啸数值模拟相关的研究成果和发现，并探讨了未来发展的挑战。主题涵盖海啸数值建模方面的改进，包括多物理场仿真，源模型的应用，危害评估以及实时预测和预警。在过去的十年中，借助2011年东北地震海啸的开创性数据，海啸数值模型得到了改进，验证和应用，可以更好地预测海啸的行为和影响。传播和淹没模型，沉积物迁移模型以及实时预报和预警等多物理场模拟已取得明显进展。自东北地震海啸以来的泥沙运移模型表明，将不同学科联系起来以在灾害科学方面取得更大进步可能会受益。尽管取得了进步，但仍需要进一步探索以提高准确性和功能，并需要进一步了解模型的局限性和不确定性。东北海啸的震源模型，借助海啸记录和其他地球物理数据集，详细描述了初始水位，断层滑移以及海啸放大的机理和过程的空间分布。为了改善对海啸灾害及相关损害的评估，东北地震海啸的震源特征被表征并应用于其他地区未来海啸的灾害评估。尽管不能将某些其他过程（如破裂传播和海底质量破坏）排除在海啸源建模的不确定性量化之内，但仍可以忽略不了“意外”的危害和损害，从而使该表征受益。与过去几年一样，海啸数值模型将在制定政策和建立海啸减灾行动的共识中发挥关键作用，并努力更好地传递该模型的意图，局限性和不确定性。