The storm track and oceanic front play an important role in the midlatitude air–sea interaction. In this study, future changes in the impact of the North Pacific midlatitude oceanic frontal intensity on the wintertime storm track are projected based on climate model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The performance of 13 CMIP5 models is evaluated, and it is found that a majority of these models are capable of reproducing the northward intensification of the storm track in response to the strengthened oceanic front. The ensemble means of outputs from six best models under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) are compared with the results of the historical simulation, and future changes are projected. It is found that the impact of the oceanic frontal intensity on the storm track tends to get stronger and extends further westward in a warming climate, and the largest increase appears in the RCP8.5 run. Further analysis reveals that the stronger impact of the oceanic front on the storm track in the future may be partially attributed to the greater oceanic frontal impact on the near-surface baroclinicity, which is mainly related to the intensified oceanic frontal impact on the meridional potential temperature gradient under the climate change scenario. However, this process can hardly explain the increasing impact of the oceanic front on the upstream of the storm track.

风暴的轨道和海洋锋线在中纬度海海相互作用中起着重要作用。在这项研究中，根据耦合模型比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）的气候模型输出，预测了北太平洋中纬度海洋锋面强度对冬季风暴轨道的未来变化。对13个CMIP5模型的性能进行了评估，结果发现，这些模型中的大多数能够响应强化的海洋锋线再现风暴路径的北向强化。比较了三种代表性浓度途径（RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下六个最佳模型的总体输出结果与历史模拟的结果，并预测了未来的变化。研究发现，在变暖的气候中，海洋锋面强度对风暴径的影响趋于增强，并向西延伸，RCP8.5的运行幅度最大。进一步的分析表明，未来海锋对风暴路径的影响更大，可能部分归因于海洋锋对近地表斜度的更大影响，这主要与海洋锋对子午势温度的影响有关。气候变化情景下的梯度变化。但是，这一过程几乎不能解释海洋锋线对风暴轨道上游影响的增加。进一步的分析表明，未来海锋对风暴路径的影响更大，可能部分归因于海洋锋对近地表斜度的更大影响，这主要与海洋锋对子午势温度的影响有关。气候变化情景下的梯度变化。但是，这一过程几乎不能解释海洋锋线对风暴轨道上游影响的增加。进一步的分析表明，未来海锋对风暴路径的影响更大，可能部分归因于海洋锋对近地表斜度的更大影响，这主要与海洋锋对子午势温度的影响有关。气候变化情景下的梯度变化。但是，这一过程几乎不能解释海洋锋线对风暴轨道上游影响的增加。