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Power law characteristics of trend analysis in Turkey
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-01-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03408-9
Eyüp Şişman

Trend identification analyses in any hydrometeorological data are necessary and critical for predictions and planning in many disciplines such as atmospheric, environmental, and oceanographic sciences; water engineering; global warming; and climate change applications. In the literature, many researches have employed trend analyses by Mann-Kendall (MK) and innovative trend analysis (ITA) methods. Especially in recent years, the ITA method is preferred in trend identification methodological applications, because it can present trend graphs with visual inspection, verbal inferences, and objective quantitative calculations. In this paper, the trends of sea surface temperature (SST) data are identified by the MK and ITA methods on double logarithmic graphs, which provide fractal geometrical appearances with power law features. The SST data trends are evaluated at 22 coastal area stations of Turkey with monthly records from 1969 to 2014. According to the MK trend test, only 6 of the 22 stations had a significant upward trend at 5% significant level and 4 of these stations are in the Mediterranean Sea coastal area. At 10% significance level increasing trend numbers become 14 stations. According to the MK test results, the data records have been grouped into two parts as warming and cooling periods considering the physical conditions of the SST data. On the other hand, the results of ITA application provide average behavioral form according to the mathematical power law equations.



中文翻译:

土耳其趋势分析的幂律特征

任何水文气象数据中的趋势识别分析对于诸如大气,环境和海洋科学等许多学科的预测和规划都是必要和关键的;水利工程;全球暖化; 和气候变化应用。在文献中,许多研究都采用了Mann-Kendall(MK)的趋势分析和创新趋势分析(ITA)的方法。尤其是近年来,ITA方法在趋势识别方法学应用中是首选,因为它可以通过视觉检查,口头推论和客观的定量计算显示趋势图。在本文中,通过MK和ITA方法在双对数图上确定了海表温度(SST)数据的趋势,这些图提供了具有幂律特征的分形几何外观。对SST数据趋势进行了评估,在土耳其的22个沿海地区站点进行了1969年至2014年的月度记录。根据MK趋势检验,在22个站点中只有6个站点的显着上升趋势为5%,而这些站点中的4个是在地中海沿岸地区。在显着性水平为10%时,趋势数增加为14个站。根据MK测试结果,考虑到SST数据的物理条件,数据记录已分为两部分,分别为升温和降温期。另一方面,ITA应用的结果根据数学幂定律方程提供了平均行为形式。22个站中只有6个站的上升趋势显着,为5%,其中4个站位于地中海沿岸地区。在显着性水平为10%时,趋势数增加为14个站。根据MK测试结果,考虑到SST数据的物理条件,数据记录已分为两部分,分别为升温和降温期。另一方面,ITA应用的结果根据数学幂定律方程提供了平均行为形式。22个站中只有6个站的上升趋势显着,为5%,其中4个站位于地中海沿岸地区。在显着性水平为10%时,趋势数增加为14个站。根据MK测试结果,考虑到SST数据的物理条件,数据记录已分为两部分,分别为升温和降温期。另一方面,ITA应用的结果根据数学幂定律方程提供了平均行为形式。

更新日期:2021-01-07
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