The Effective Acceleration Model (EAM) predicts the Time-of-Arrival (ToA) of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) driven shock and the average speed within the sheath at 1 AU. The model is based on the assumption that the ambient solar wind interacts with the interplanetary CME (ICME) resulting in constant acceleration or deceleration. The upgraded version of the model (EAMv3), presented here, incorporates two basic improvements: (i) a new technique for the calculation of the acceleration (or deceleration) of the ICME from the Sun to 1 AU and (ii) a correction for the CME plane-of-sky speed. A validation of the upgraded EAM model is performed via comparisons to predictions from the ensemble version of the Drag-Based model (DBEM) and the WSA-ENLIL+Cone ensemble model. A common sample of 16 CMEs/ICMEs, in 2013 – 2014, is used for the comparison. Basic performance metrics such as the mean absolute error (MAE), mean error (ME) and root mean squared error (RMSE) between observed and predicted values of ToA are presented. MAE for EAM model was 8.7 ± 1.6 $8.7\pm 1.6$ hours while for DBEM and ENLIL was 14.3 ± 2.2 $14.3\pm 2.2$ and 12.8 ± 1.7 $12.8\pm 1.7$ hours, respectively. ME for EAM was − 1.4 ± 2.7 $-1.4\pm 2.7$ hours in contrast with − 9.7 ± 3.4 $-9.7\pm 3.4$ and − 6.1 ± 3.3 $-6.1\pm 3.3$ hours from DBEM and ENLIL. We also study the hypothesis of stronger deceleration in the interplanetary (IP) space utilizing the EAMv3 and DBEM models. In particularly, the DBEM model perform better when a greater value of drag parameter, of order of a factor of 3, is used in contrast to previous studies. EAMv3 model shows a deceleration of ICMEs at greater distances, with a mean value of 0.72 AU.

中文翻译：

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传播条件和 ICME 到达时间：有效加速模型与 ENLIL 和 DBEM 模型的比较

有效加速模型 (EAM) 预测日冕物质抛射 (CME) 驱动冲击的到达时间 (ToA) 和鞘内 1 AU 处的平均速度。该模型基于环境太阳风与行星际 CME (ICME) 相互作用导致恒定加速或减速的假设。此处介绍的模型的升级版本 (EAMv3) 包含两项基本改进：(i) 计算 ICME 从太阳到 1 AU 的加速度（或减速度）的新技术和 (ii) CME 的天空速度。升级后的 EAM 模型的验证是通过与基于 Drag-Based 模型 (DBEM) 和 WSA-ENLIL+Cone 集成模型的集成版本的预测进行比较来执行的。使用 2013 年至 2014 年的 16 个 CME/ICME 的通用样本进行比较。介绍了基本性能指标，例如 ToA 的观察值和预测值之间的平均绝对误差 (MAE)、平均误差 (ME) 和均方根误差 (RMSE)。EAM 模型的 MAE 为 8.7 ± 1.6 $8.7\pm 1.6$ 小时，而 DBEM 和 ENLIL 的 MAE 分别为 14.3 ± 2.2 $14.3\pm 2.2$ 和 12.8 ± 1.7 $12.8\pm 1.7$ 小时。EAM 的 ME 为 − 1.4 ± 2.7 $-1.4\pm 2.7$ 小时，而 DBEM 和 ENLIL 的 ME 为 − 9.7 ± 3.4 $-9.7\pm 3.4$ 和 − 6.1 ± 3.3 $-6.1\pm 3.3$ 小时。我们还利用 EAMv3 和 DBEM 模型研究了行星际 (IP) 空间中更强减速的假设。特别是，与之前的研究相比，当使用更大的阻力参数值（大约为 3 倍）时，DBEM 模型的性能更好。EAMv3 模型显示 ICME 在更远距离处减速，平均值为 0.72 AU。