As climate change threatens livelihoods in Bangladesh, migration to neighboring countries in South Asia may accelerate. We use multiple types of data to predict how changes in the environment affect cross-border migration. Nationally representative migration data are combined with remote-sensing measures of flooding and rainfall and in situ measures of monsoon onset, temperature, radiation, and soil salinity to characterize environmental migration patterns. We further evaluate which groups are more susceptible to cross-border migration to examine how environmental factors shape the demographic composition of the country. We find migration to neighboring countries declines with short-term, adverse weather but increases with soil salinity. The soil salinity effect remains particularly persistent among poorer households. Investments targeting risks faced by the poor and non-poor remain crucial, as retention of the earnings skills, and experience of the latter enhances national resilience.

中文翻译：

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气候引起的跨境移民和人口结构变化

由于气候变化威胁到孟加拉国的生计，向南亚邻国的移民可能会加速。我们使用多种类型的数据来预测环境变化如何影响跨境迁移。具有全国代表性的迁移数据与洪水和降雨的遥感测量以及季风爆发、温度、辐射和土壤盐度的原位测量相结合，以表征环境迁移模式。我们进一步评估哪些群体更容易受到跨境移民的影响，以研究环境因素如何塑造该国的人口构成。我们发现向邻国的迁移会随着短期的恶劣天气而减少，但会随着土壤盐度的增加而增加。土壤盐分对贫困家庭的影响尤其持久。