Globally, rural livelihoods are increasingly challenged by the dual threats of land degradation and climate change. These issues are of particular concern in sub-Saharan Africa, where land degradation is believed to be severe and where climate change will bring higher temperatures and shifts in rainfall. To date, however, we know little about the relative effects of these various potential environmental stressors on migration. To examine these processes, we link longitudinal data from 850 Ugandan households with environmental data on soils, forests, and climate, and then analyze these data using approaches that account for potential spatial and temporal confounders. Our findings reveal that climate anomalies, rather than land degradation, are the primary contributor to environmental migration in Uganda, with heat stress of particular importance. Short hot spells increase temporary migration, an element of a diversified household livelihood strategy, while long-term heat stress induces permanent migration through an agricultural livelihoods pathway.

中文翻译：

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乌干达的气候异常、土地退化和农村人口外迁

在全球范围内，农村生计日益受到土地退化和气候变化双重威胁的挑战。这些问题在撒哈拉以南非洲尤其令人担忧，那里的土地退化被认为很严重，气候变化将带来更高的温度和降雨量的变化。然而，迄今为止，我们对这些各种潜在环境压力因素对迁移的相对影响知之甚少。为了检查这些过程，我们将来自 850 个乌干达家庭的纵向数据与土壤、森林和气候的环境数据联系起来，然后使用解释潜在空间和时间混杂因素的方法分析这些数据。我们的研究结果表明，气候异常，而不是土地退化，是导致乌干达环境迁移的主要因素，热应激尤为重要。