In the absence of health surveys, we know very little about trends in disability before the 1960s. When health surveys become available, we can see that disability trends follow those in mortality with a lag. After a period of decline, mortality rates in the United States (and other Western countries) stagnated in the 1960s, then started falling again in the 1970s, mostly as the result of decreasing mortality from cardiovascular disease. However, disability prevalence did not start to decline until the 1980s (Crimmins et al. 2016).

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解释美国的残疾趋势，1963-2015

由于缺乏健康调查，我们对 1960 年代之前的残疾趋势知之甚少。当健康调查可用时，我们可以看到残疾趋势滞后于死亡率。经过一段时间的下降，美国（和其他西方国家）的死亡率在 1960 年代停滞不前，然后在 1970 年代再次开始下降，这主要是心血管疾病死亡率下降的结果。然而，残疾患病率直到 1980 年代才开始下降（Crimmins 等人，2016 年）。