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A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Program
Journal of Quantitative Criminology ( IF 4.330 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s10940-020-09458-6
Greg Midgette 1, 2 , Beau Kilmer 3 , Nancy Nicosia 4 , Paul Heaton 5
Affiliation  

Objectives

Evaluate the deterrent effect of a program that increases the certainty and celerity of sanction for arrestees ordered to abstain from alcohol and other drugs on substance-impaired driving arrests.

Methods

We examine participant compliance with orders to abstain from alcohol and other drug use via breathalyzer, body-worn continuous alcohol monitoring devices, transdermal drug patches, and urinalyses. We then evaluate the impact of the 24/7 Sobriety program on substance-impaired driving arrests. Using variation across counties in the timing of program implementation in North Dakota as a natural experiment, we use difference-in-differences fixed effects Poisson regressions to measure the program’s effect on county-level arrests for substance-impaired driving.

Results

Over half of participants ordered to abstain from substance use complete 24/7 Sobriety without a detected substance use event. At the county level, the program is associated with a 9% reduction in substance-impaired driving arrests after accounting for the impact of oil exploration in the Bakken region, law enforcement intensity, alcohol availability, whether the state’s large universities were in session, and socio-demographic characteristics. We find that the Bakken oil boom is associated with a 22% increase in substance-impaired driving arrests.

Conclusions

The results suggest frequent monitoring combined with increased sanction celerity deters substance use-involved crime. While the results are generally consistent with an earlier study of 24/7 Sobriety in another state, differences in the study outcome measures implementation choices across states make direct comparisons difficult. More can be learned by conducting randomized controlled trials that vary time on program, testing technology, and/or level of sanction.



中文翻译:

测试制裁确定性和速度对物质损害驾驶影响的自然实验:北达科他州的 24/7 清醒计划

目标

评估一项计划的威慑作用,该计划增加了对因物质受损驾驶逮捕而被命令戒酒和其他药物的被捕者的制裁确定性和迅速性。

方法

我们通过呼气测醉器、身体佩戴的连续酒精监测设备、透皮药物贴片和尿液分析检查参与者对戒酒和其他药物使用命令的遵守情况。然后,我们评估 24/7 清醒计划对物质受损驾驶逮捕的影响。使用北达科他州计划实施时间跨县的差异作为自然实验,我们使用差异中的差异固定效应泊松回归来衡量该计划对县级物质受损驾驶逮捕的影响。

结果

超过一半的参与者被要求在没有检测到物质使用事件的情况下,全天 24/7 清醒地戒除物质使用。在县一级,考虑到巴肯地区石油勘探的影响、执法强度、酒精供应、该州的大型大学是否开课以及社会人口特征。我们发现,巴肯石油繁荣与物质受损驾驶逮捕增加 22% 相关。

结论

结果表明,频繁的监测与提高制裁的速度相结合,可以阻止涉及药物使用的犯罪。虽然结果与另一个州的早期 24/7 Sobriety 研究基本一致,但研究结果衡量各州实施选择的差异使得直接比较变得困难。通过在项目、测试技术和/或制裁级别上进行不同时间的随机对照试验,可以了解更多信息。

更新日期:2020-05-04
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