Objectives

This study aims to assess the evidential value of the knowledgebase in criminology after accounting for the presence of potential Type I errors.

Methods

The present study examines the distribution of 1248 p-values (that inform 84 statistically significant outcomes across 26 systematic reviews) in meta-analyses on the topic of crime and justice published by the Campbell Collaboration (CC) using p-curve analysis.

Results

The distribution of all CC p-values have a significant cluster of p-values immediately below 0.05, which is indicative of p-hacking. Evidential value (right skewed p-curves) is detected in most meta-analytic topic areas but not motivational interviewing (substance use outcome), sex offender treatment (sexual/general recidivism), police legitimacy (procedural justice), street-level drug law enforcement (total crime), and treatment effectiveness in secure corrections (juvenile recidivism).

Conclusions

More studies, especially carefully designed and implemented randomized experiments with sufficiently large sample sizes, are needed before we are able to affirm the presence of evidential value and replicability of studies in all CC topic areas with confidence.

中文翻译：

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p值问题？犯罪学的证据价值检验

目标

本研究旨在评估潜在I型错误的存在后，评估犯罪学知识库的证据价值。

方法

本研究在由坎贝尔合作组织（CC）发布的关于犯罪与正义主题的荟萃分析中，使用p曲线分析研究了1248个p值的分布（这些信息在26个系统评价中为84个统计学意义的结果提供了依据）。

结果

所有CC p值的分布都具有紧接在0.05以下的p值的显着簇，这表示p hacking。在大多数荟萃分析主题领域中检测到证据价值（右偏p曲线），但在动机访谈（物质使用结果），性罪犯待遇（性/一般再犯），警察合法性（程序正义），街头毒品法中未检测到执法（犯罪总数）和安全纠正中的治疗效果（青少年累犯）。

结论

在我们能够自信地确认所有CC主题领域中研究的证据价值和可重复性之前，需要进行更多的研究，尤其是精心设计并实施的具有足够大样本量的随机实验。