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Economic policy uncertainty and bank credit growth: Evidence from European banks
Journal of Multinational Financial Management ( IF 4.482 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mulfin.2020.100653
Gamze Ozturk Danisman , Oguz Ersan , Ender Demir

Using a sample of 2977 private and listed banks in the EU-5 countries (the United Kingdom, Germany, Spain, Italy, France) for the years 2009–2018, this paper explores the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on credit growth. Using panel data fixed effects methodology and controlling for endogeneity using two-step difference GMM estimators, our findings indicate that uncertainty in economic policies hampers the credit growth of European banks. Our bank type-based analyses indicate that the effect is mainly valid for cooperative banks. Additional analyses imply that the negative impact of EPU on credit growth is more pronounced in civil law countries, increases with debt maturity, and weakens for banks with a larger number of employees and branches. Furthermore, the unfavorable effects are stronger in well-capitalized banks, banks with foreign subsidiaries, and banks with a higher share of wholesale funding. We also provide several policy implications for different economic actors.



中文翻译:

经济政策不确定性和银行信贷增长:来自欧洲银行的证据

本文使用欧盟5国(英国,德国,西班牙,意大利,法国)的2977家私人和上市银行2009-2018年的样本,研究了经济政策不确定性(EPU)对信贷增长的影响。使用面板数据固定效应方法并使用两步差异GMM估计器控制内生性,我们的发现表明,经济政策的不确定性阻碍了欧洲银行的信贷增长。我们基于银行类型的分析表明,这种影响主要对合作银行有效。进一步的分析表明,EPU对信贷增长的负面影响在大陆法系国家中更为明显,随着债务期限的增加而增加,而对于拥有大量雇员和分支机构的银行而言,这种影响减弱了。此外,资本雄厚的银行的不利影响更大,拥有外国子公司的银行,以及批发资金份额较高的银行。我们还为不同的经济参与者提供了一些政策含义。

更新日期:2020-10-05
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