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An Agent-Based Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling of Climate Change
Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation ( IF 3.506 ) Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.18564/jasss.4325
Marcin Czupryna , Christian Franzke , Sascha Hokamp , Jürgen Scheffran

There is an ongoing discussion concerning the relationship between social welfare and climate change, and thus the required level and type of measures needed to protect the climate. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been extended to incorporate technological progress, heterogeneity and uncertainty, making use of a (stochastic) dynamic equilibrium approach in order to derive a solution. According to the literature, the IAM class of models does not take all the relationships among economic, social and environmental factors into account. Moreover, it does not consider these interdependencies at the micro-level, meaning that all possible consequences are not duly examined. Here, we propose an agent-based approach to analyse the relationship between economic welfare and climate protection. In particular, our aim is to analyse how the decisions of individual agents, allowing for the trade-off between economic welfare and climate protection, influence the aggregated emergent economic behaviour. Using this model, we estimate a damage function, with values in the order 3% - 4%for 2 C temperature increase and having a linear (or slightly concave) shape. We show that the heterogeneity of the agents, technological progress and the damage function may lead to lower GDP growth rates and greater temperature-related damage than what is forecast by models with solely homogeneous (representative) agents.

中文翻译:

基于代理的气候变化综合评估模型

目前正在进行有关社会福利与气候变化之间关系的讨论,因此涉及保护气候所需的措施的水平和类型。集成评估模型(IAM)已扩展为结合技术进步,异质性和不确定性,并利用(随机)动态平衡方法得出解决方案。根据文献,IAM类模型并未考虑经济,社会和环境因素之间的所有关系。此外,它没有在微观层次上考虑这些相互依赖性,这意味着所有可能的后果都没有得到适当的检查。在这里,我们提出了一种基于主体的方法来分析经济福利与气候保护之间的关系。特别是,我们的目的是分析个体代理人的决定如何在经济福利与气候保护之间进行权衡取舍,从而影响总体的紧急经济行为。使用该模型,我们估计出一个损伤函数,其值随着2 C温度的升高而在3%-4%的范围内,并具有线性(或略微凹陷)的形状。我们表明,与仅具有均质(代表性)代理的模型所预测的相比,代理的异质性,技术进步和损害功能可能导致更低的GDP增长率和与温度相关的损害。对于2 C温度升高,其值大约为3%-4%,并且具有线性(或略微凹陷)的形状。我们表明,与仅具有均质(代表性)代理的模型所预测的相比,代理的异质性,技术进步和损害功能可能导致较低的GDP增长率和与温度相关的损害。对于2 C温度升高,其值大约为3%-4%,并且具有线性(或略微凹陷)的形状。我们表明,与仅具有均质(代表性)代理的模型所预测的相比,代理的异质性,技术进步和损害功能可能导致较低的GDP增长率和与温度相关的损害。
更新日期:2020-01-01
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